Multi-model power system state estimation based on linear transition models

Abstract
Power system state estimation is one of the most important functions of power system control centers. In recent years, the complexity of power system state estimation has significantly increased due to the growing number of distributed, including renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, the demand response technologies, and the increased risk of cyber-attacks. Under these conditions, state estimation methods, which consider information about the time-correlation of the power system states have a great potential. The correlation is described by a transition model. The well-known state estimation methods usually use one single model. However, in case of stochastic behavior of the load and generation, it is impossible to assert the adequacy of the chosen model over the entire observation interval. Therefore, the paper proposes a multi-model forecasting power system state estimation method, which has lower errors in comparison with a single-model assessment at the moments of the lowest accuracy of the latter. Multi-model parameter estimation is used based on three procedures of the single-model Kalman filtering estimation and various transition models based on autoregressive and vector autoregressive analyzes, as well as Holt's exponential smoothing. Uniting the single-model estimation has been carried out according to the criterion of the minimum of variance of the resulting estimate. An algorithm of multi-model power system state estimation has been developed. Its version has been analyzed using a three-model forecasting-aided estimation using linear transition models. The state of the IEEE 30-bus test power system has been assessed by the means of simulation modeling. The maximum accuracy increase of the multi-model estimation in comparison with the single model is set up. 26,1 % is for autoregressive analysis; 16,9 % is for vector regression analysis and 37,7 % is for Holt’s exponential smoothing. The proposed method of multi-model state estimation has higher robustness and accuracy at the moments of the lowest accuracy of single-model estimation. It is advisable to use the method to solve control tasks of power systems with rapidly changing dynamic modes.