Estimating Stock Status and Biological Reference Points of the Sardine Fishery Using the Surplus Production Model from the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh

Abstract

This research examined the biological reference points (BRPs) and stock status of the sardine fishery in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), Bangladesh, to determine the sustainability of this resource. The Monte Carlo method (CMSY), the Bayesian state-space Schaefer surplus production model (BSM), and the ASPIC (a Stock Production Model Incorporating Covariates) software suite, were used to analyze catch–effort data obtained from the Yearbook of Fisheries Statistics of Bangladesh. All models derived maximum sustainable yields (MSY) ranging from 37,900 to 41,280 t, which is quite near to the catch from the latest year (38,051 t in 2020), indicating the fully exploited status of sardines. The estimated B < B_MSY and F > F_MSY values from the BSM and Schaefer models indicate a poor biomass and an unsafe fishing status. For Schaefer and BSM, the calculated F/F_MSY values were 1.07 and 1.06, and the B/B_MSY values were 0.92 and 0.75, which also indicate the overexploited status of the sardine fishery in the BoB, Bangladesh. This information will aid in developing management strategies and conservation policies for the sustainability and rebuilding of this commercially important resource in the BoB on the Bangladesh coast.