Utilizing the Available Open-Source Remotely Sensed Data in Assessing the Wildfire Ignition and Spread Capacities of Vegetated Surfaces in Romania

Abstract

We bring a practical and comprehensive GIS-based framework to utilize freely available remotely sensed datasets to assess wildfire ignition probability and spreading capacities of vegetated landscapes. The study area consists of the country-level scale of the Romanian territory, characterized by a diversity of vegetated landscapes threatened by climate change. We utilize the Wildfire Ignition Probability/Wildfire Spreading Capacity Index (WIPI/WSCI). WIPI/WSCI models rely on a multi-criteria data mining procedure assessing the study area’s social, environmental, geophysical, and fuel properties based on open access remotely sensed data. We utilized the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to weigh each indexing criterion’s impact factor and assess the model’s overall sensitivity. Introducing ROC analysis at an earlier stage of the workflow elevated the final Area Under the Curve (AUC) of WIPI from 0.705 to 0.778 and WSCI from 0.586 to 0.802. The modeling results enable discussion on the vulnerability of protected areas and the exposure of man-made structures to wildfire risk. Our study shows that within the wildland–urban interface of Bucharest’s metropolitan area, there is a remarkable building stock of healthcare, residential and educational functions, which are significantly exposed and vulnerable to wildfire spreading risk.