Updated Trends in Cancer in Japan: Incidence in 1985–2015 and Mortality in 1958–2018—A Sign of Decrease in Cancer Incidence

Abstract

Background: Unlike many North American and European countries, Japan has observed a continuous increase in cancer incidence over the last few decades. We examined the most recent trends in population-based cancer incidence and mortality in Japan. Methods: National cancer mortality data between 1958 and 2018 were obtained from published vital statistics. Cancer incidence data between 1985 and 2015 were obtained from high-quality population-based cancer registries maintained by three prefectures (Yamagata, Fukui, and Nagasaki). Trends in age-standardized rates (ASR) were examined using Joinpoint regression analysis. Results: For males, all-cancer incidence increased between 1985 and 1996 (annual percent change (APC): +1.1% [95% confidence interval: 0.7, 1.5]), increased again in 2000-2010 (+1.3% [0.9, 1.8]), and then decreased until 2015 (-1.4% [-2.5, -0.3]). For females, all-cancer incidence increased until 2010 (+0.8% [0.6, 0.9] in 1985-2004, +2.4% [1.3, 3.4] in 2004-2010), and stabilized thereafter until 2015. The post-2000 increase was mainly attributable to prostate in males and breast in females, which slowed or levelled during the first decade of the 2000s. After a sustained increase, all-cancer mortality for males decreased in 1996-2013 (-1.6% [-1.6, -1.5]) and accelerated thereafter until 2018 (-2.5% [-2.9, -2.0]). All-cancer mortality for females decreased intermittently throughout the observation period, with the most recent APC of -1.0% [-1.1, -0.9] in 2003-2018. The recent decreases in mortality in both sexes, and in incidence in males, were mainly attributable to stomach, liver and male lung. Conclusion: The ASR of all-cancer incidence began decreasing significantly in males and levelled off in females in 2010.