Vector bionomics and vectorial capacity as emergent properties of mosquito behaviors and ecology
Open Access
- 22 April 2020
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Public Library of Science (PLoS) in PLoS Computational Biology
- Vol. 16 (4), e1007446
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007446
Abstract
Mosquitoes are important vectors for pathogens that infect humans and other vertebrate animals. Some aspects of adult mosquito behavior and mosquito ecology play an important role in determining the capacity of vector populations to transmit pathogens. Here, we re-examine factors affecting the transmission of pathogens by mosquitoes using a new approach. Unlike most previous models, this framework considers the behavioral states and state transitions of adult mosquitoes through a sequence of activity bouts. We developed a new framework for individual-based simulation models called MBITES (Mosquito Bout-based and Individual-based Transmission Ecology Simulator). In MBITES, it is possible to build models that simulate the behavior and ecology of adult mosquitoes in exquisite detail on complex resource landscapes generated by spatial point processes. We also developed an ordinary differential equation model which is the Kolmogorov forward equations for models developed in MBITES under a specific set of simplifying assumptions. While mosquito infection and pathogen development are one possible part of a mosquito’s state, that is not our main focus. Using extensive simulation using some models developed in MBITES, we show that vectorial capacity can be understood as an emergent property of simple behavioral algorithms interacting with complex resource landscapes, and that relative density or sparsity of resources and the need to search can have profound consequences for mosquito populations’ capacity to transmit pathogens. Mathematical modelling of pathogen transmission by mosquitoes began over a century ago with Ronald Ross and has produced a set of metrics that are the basis of measuring transmission. One crucial metric is vectorial capacity (VC), a simple equation describing the potential of mosquitoes to transmit pathogens. Despite its elegance, this formula lacks specificity to describe mosquitoes in a particular landscape. To study how these metrics arise in particular places, we built MBITES (Mosquito Bout-based and Individual-based Transmission Ecology Simulator), a complex stochastic individual-based model where mosquitoes fly from place to place to blood feed, sugar feed, lay eggs, mate, or rest. We also built a related model, MBDETES based on deterministic mathematics to show how the complex behaviors possible in MBITES can be summarized on average, and to provide a bridge to the simple equations describing VC. Through a series of computational experiments, we show a strong dependence VC and other metrics on fine details of the landscape mosquitoes inhabit which are not obvious from simple equations.Funding Information
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1110495)
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U19-AI089674)
This publication has 36 references indexed in Scilit:
- A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970–2010Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 2013
- THE IMPORTANCE OF MOSQUITO BEHAVIOURAL ADAPTATIONS TO MALARIA CONTROL IN AFRICAEvolution, 2013
- Ross, Macdonald, and a Theory for the Dynamics and Control of Mosquito-Transmitted PathogensPLoS Pathogens, 2012
- Stochasticity and heterogeneity in host–vector modelsJournal of The Royal Society Interface, 2007
- Revisiting the Basic Reproductive Number for Malaria and Its Implications for Malaria ControlPLoS Biology, 2007
- Source reduction of mosquito larval habitats has unexpected consequences on malaria transmissionProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2006
- Mosquito Sugar Feeding and Reproductive EnergeticsAnnual Review of Entomology, 1995
- Eutrophication in peel inlet—II. Identification of critical uncertainties via generalized sensitivity analysisWater Research, 1980
- Eutrophication in peel inlet—I. The problem-defining behavior and a mathematical model for the phosphorus scenarioWater Research, 1980
- Prognosis for Interruption of Malaria Transmission Through Assessment of the Mosquito's Vectorial CapacityNature, 1964