Sleep–wake behaviors exhibited by shift workers in normal operations and predicted by a biomathematical model of fatigue
- 26 March 2020
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Oxford University Press (OUP) in Sleep
- Vol. 43 (9)
- https://doi.org/10.1093/sleep/zsaa049
Abstract
To compare rail workers’ actual sleep-wake behaviors in normal operations to those predicted by a biomathematical model of fatigue (BMMF). To determine whether there are group-level residual sources of error in sleep predictions that could be modeled to improve group-level sleep predictions. The sleep-wake behaviors of 354 rail workers were examined during 1,722 breaks that were 8h to 24h in duration. Sleep-wake patterns were continuously monitored using wrist-actigraphy and predicted from the work-rest schedule using a BMMF. Rail workers’ actual and predicted sleep-wake behaviors were defined as split-sleep (i.e. ≥2 sleep periods in a break) and consolidated-sleep (i.e. one sleep period in a break) behaviors. Sleepiness was predicted from the actual and predicted sleep-wake data. Consolidated-sleep behaviors were observed during 1,441 breaks and correctly predicted during 1,359 breaks. Split-sleep behaviors were observed during 280 breaks and correctly predicted during 182 breaks. Predicting the wrong type of sleep-wake behavior resulted in a misestimation of hours of sleep during a break. Relative to sleepiness predictions derived from actual sleep-wake data, predicting the wrong type of sleep-wake behavior resulted in a misestimation of sleepiness predictions during the subsequent shift. All workers with the same work-rest schedule have the same predicted sleep-wake behaviors; however, these workers do not all exhibit the same sleep-wake behaviors in real-world operations. Future models could account for this group-level residual variance with a new approach to modeling sleep, whereby sub-group(s) may be predicted to exhibit one of a number of sleep-wake behaviors.Keywords
Funding Information
- Australian Research Council (DP0346651, DP0881338)
This publication has 28 references indexed in Scilit:
- Predicting pilot's sleep during layovers using their own behaviour or data from colleagues: Implications for biomathematical modelsAccident Analysis & Prevention, 2012
- Probing the Mechanisms of Chronotype Using Quantitative ModelingJournal of Biological Rhythms, 2010
- Do Short International Layovers Allow Sufficient Opportunity for Pilots to Recover?Chronobiology International, 2006
- Predicting the Timing and Duration of Sleep in an Operational Setting Using Social FactorsChronobiology International, 2006
- Managing fatigue: It's about sleepSleep Medicine Reviews, 2005
- The amount of sleep obtained by locomotive engineers: effects of break duration and time of break onsetOccupational and Environmental Medicine, 2003
- Truck Drivers Sleep-Wake Time ArrangementsBiological Rhythm Research, 2003
- The Perceived Value of TimeTime & Society, 2003
- SleepinessSleep Medicine Reviews, 1998
- Short and Long-term Adjustment of Circadian Rhythms in ‘ Permanent ’ Night NursesErgonomics, 1978