Development of a probability calculator for psychosis risk in children, adolescents, and young adults
- 12 January 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Psychological Medicine
- Vol. 52 (14), 3159-3167
- https://doi.org/10.1017/s0033291720005231
Abstract
Background Assessment of risks of illnesses has been an important part of medicine for decades. We now have hundreds of ‘risk calculators’ for illnesses, including brain disorders, and these calculators are continually improving as more diverse measures are collected on larger samples. Methods We first replicated an existing psychosis risk calculator and then used our own sample to develop a similar calculator for use in recruiting ‘psychosis risk’ enriched community samples. We assessed 632 participants age 8–21 (52% female; 48% Black) from a community sample with longitudinal data on neurocognitive, clinical, medical, and environmental variables. We used this information to predict psychosis spectrum (PS) status in the future. We selected variables based on lasso, random forest, and statistical inference relief; and predicted future PS using ridge regression, random forest, and support vector machines. Results Cross-validated prediction diagnostics were obtained by building and testing models in randomly selected sub-samples of the data, resulting in a distribution of the diagnostics; we report the mean. The strongest predictors of later PS status were the Children's Global Assessment Scale; delusions of predicting the future or having one's thoughts/actions controlled; and the percent married in one's neighborhood. Random forest followed by ridge regression was most accurate, with a cross-validated area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adjustment of the model including only six variables reached an AUC of 0.70. Conclusions Results support the potential application of risk calculators for screening and identification of at-risk community youth in prospective investigations of developmental trajectories of the PS.This publication has 58 references indexed in Scilit:
- Development and Validation of a Risk Calculator for Prediction of Cardiac Risk After SurgeryCirculation, 2011
- Pancreatectomy risk calculator: an ACS-NSQIP resourceHPB, 2010
- A cognitive neuroscience-based computerized battery for efficient measurement of individual differences: Standardization and initial construct validationJournal of Neuroscience Methods, 2010
- A self-reported instrument for prodromal symptoms of psychosis: Testing the clinical validity of the PRIME Screen—Revised (PS-R) in a Japanese populationSchizophrenia Research, 2008
- Diabetes Risk Calculator: A simple tool for detecting undiagnosed diabetes and pre-diabetesDiabetes Care, 2007
- Psychosis prediction: 12-month follow up of a high-risk (“prodromal”) groupSchizophrenia Research, 2003
- Six-Year Follow-Up Study of Cognitive and Functional Status Across the Lifespan in Schizophrenia: A Comparison With Alzheimer’s Disease and Normal AgingAmerican Journal of Psychiatry, 2001
- The Prodromal Phase of First-episode Psychosis: Past and Current ConceptualizationsSchizophrenia Bulletin, 1996
- Construct validity in psychological tests.Psychological Bulletin, 1955
- On inferring natural dispositions and talents from development of brain.Published by American Psychological Association (APA) ,1824