Spatiotemporal Distribution and Evolution of Digestive Tract Cancer Cases in Lujiang County, China since 2012
Open Access
- 17 June 2022
- journal article
- case report
- Published by MDPI AG in International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
- Vol. 19 (12), 7451
- https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19127451
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution and evolution of digestive tract cancer (DTC) in Lujiang County, China by using the geographic information system technology. Results of this study are expected to provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control of DTC. The data on DTC cases in Lujiang County, China, were downloaded from the Data Center of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Hefei, Anhui Province, China, while the demographic data were sourced from the demographic department in China. Systematic statistical analyses, including the spatial empirical Bayes smoothing, spatial autocorrelation, hotspot statistics, and Kulldorff’s retrospective space-time scan, were used to identify the spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of DTC. GM(1,1) and standard deviation ellipses were then applied to predict the future evolution of the spatial pattern of the DTC cases in Lujiang County. The results showed that DTC in Lujiang County had obvious spatiotemporal clustering. The spatial distribution of DTC cases increases gradually from east to west in the county in a stepwise pattern. The peak of DTC cases occurred in 2012–2013, and the high-case spatial clusters were located mainly in the northwest of Lujiang County. At the 99% confidence interval, two spatiotemporal clusters were identified. From 2012 to 2017, the cases of DTC in Lujiang County gradually shifted to the high-incidence area in the northwest, and the spatial distribution range experienced a process of “dispersion-clustering”. The cases of DTC in Lujiang County will continue to move to the northwest from 2018 to 2025, and the predicted spatial clustering tends to be more obvious.Keywords
Funding Information
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (41977402)
This publication has 25 references indexed in Scilit:
- Contribution of industrial density and socioeconomic status to the spatial distribution of thyroid cancer risk in Hangzhou, ChinaScience of The Total Environment, 2018
- Using the Kulldorff’s scan statistical analysis to detect spatio-temporal clusters of tuberculosis in Qinghai Province, China, 2009–2016BMC Infectious Diseases, 2017
- Spatial-temporal analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in the northeast of the Yunnan province, People’s Republic of ChinaInfectious Diseases of Poverty, 2017
- Spatial transmission and meteorological determinants of tuberculosis incidence in Qinghai Province, China: a spatial clustering panel analysisInfectious Diseases of Poverty, 2016
- Spatiotemporal patterns of remotely sensed PM 2.5 concentration in China from 1999 to 2011Remote Sensing of Environment, 2016
- Cancer statistics in China, 2015CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, 2016
- Socio-Demographic Predictors and Distribution of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (TB) in Xinjiang, China: A Spatial AnalysisPLOS ONE, 2015
- Drinking water and liver cancerWorld Journal of Gastroenterology, 2011
- Evaluation of data quality in the cancer registry: Principles and methods. Part I: Comparability, validity and timelinessEuropean Journal of Cancer, 2009
- Design options for sample-based mortality surveillanceInternational Journal of Epidemiology, 2005