Risk Stratification Based on Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation Score in Patients With Child‐Pugh B Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Bleeding

Abstract

Background & Aims Optimal candidates for early TIPS in patients with Child‐Pugh B cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB) remain unclear. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that risk stratification using CLIF Consortium Acute Decompensation score (CLIF‐C ADs) may be useful to identify a subgroup at high risk of mortality or further bleeding that may benefit from early TIPS in patients with Child‐Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB. Approach & Results We analyzed the pooled individual data from two previous studies of 608 patients with Child‐Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB who received standard treatment between 2010 and 2017 in China. The c‐index of CLIF‐C ADs for 6‐week and 1‐year mortality (0.715 and 0.708) were significantly better than those of active bleeding at endoscopy (0.633 [p <0.001] and 0.556 [p <0.001]) and other prognostic models. With X‐tile software identifying optimal cutoff value, patients were categorized as low‐risk (CLIF‐C ADs 56), with a 5.6%, 16.8% and 25.4% risk of 6‐week death, respectively. Nevertheless, the performance of CLIF‐C ADs for predicting a composite endpoint of 6‐week death or further bleeding was not satisfactory (AUC: 0.588). A nomogram (https://childbavb.shinyapps.io/6weekmortalitybleeding/) incorporating components of CLIF‐C ADs and albumin, platelet, active bleeding, ascites significantly improved the prediction accuracy (AUC: 0.725). Conclusions In patients with Child‐Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB, risk stratification using CLIF‐C ADs identifies a subgroup with high‐risk of death that may derive survival benefit from early TIPS. With improved prediction accuracy for 6‐week death or further bleeding, the data‐driven nomogram may help to stratify patients in randomized trials. Future external validation of these findings in patients with different etiologies is required.