Performance evaluation of terminal airspace system safety, delay and predictability of Muritala Mohammed International Airport, Ikeja Lagos, Nigeria

Abstract

This paper outlines a multi-dimensional user-oriented performance metrics approach in evaluating the operation of the terminal airspace system to aid in the airport and airspace planning and decision making. Safety, delay and predictability metrics contribute to the analytical framework. From the findings, the occurrence of air incidence has a high severity level at departure, and arrival phases of flight, higher likelihood at the radar room and much of the incidences were as a result of faulty equipment and inherent absence of modern airspace infrastructure. Also, in Lagos terminal airspace, the number of incidences has no close correlation with the level of traffic complexity. Total schedule arrival delay ranges from 1-392 minutes representing an average of 7.8-17.9 minutes per aircraft that arrived Lagos airport at that period. Besides, the total approach contact time ranges from 1-57 minutes, translating to 4.6-7.1 minutes per aircraft. However, variability in arrival time of 1-5 minutes is common from published airline arrival scheduled time. In the same vein, the variability of 1-5 minutes is common from approach contact times of aircraft. These figures indicate sound arrival predictability signature for Lagos airport. Also, departure time variability above 30 minutes is familiar from the ATC clearance time for the various routes under study. However, there is about or more 25% variability of more than 15 minutes, and this indicates possible inconsistency of predicting departure times from the times ATC clearance was acquired. Above all, the predictability of departure times in Lagos airport is weak compared to those of the arrival. Taken by it, this may be a sign of airspace congestion or ATC deficiencies at the Lagos airport. This is an indication of the lack of users' confidence in Nigeria's air transport industry to deliver just-in-time service.