Hydrological Model for Sustainable Development in the Aral Sea Region

Abstract

Possible scenarios of the Aral Sea crisis solution are discussed, and a new scenario is proposed. Previous scenarios have provided for the transfer of water from Siberian Rivers to Central Asia and the restriction of unsustainable expansion of irrigation in this region. The scenario proposed in this paper is partly based on the use of Caspian water evaporators located on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. Engineering realization of this scenario needs only the construction of the drainage system for the runoff of Caspian waters to the natural evaporators, between which Kara-Bogaz-Gol is the functioning evaporator. This paper shows that realization of this scenario allows the rescue of the Aral Sea and normalization of the water balance in Central Asia. Under this, as the simulation modeling results show, there exist different versions of the scenario depending on the area of evaporators and restrictions for the runoff of Amu Darya and Syr Darya waters to the irrigation systems. Calculation results show that the Aral Sea could be restored within 90–240 years depending on the scenario versions. With only Kara-Bogaz-Gol as the evaporator, the Aral Sea cannot be restored within a century. Additionally, if the anthropogenic runoff of river waters was decreased by 10 percent, the Aral Sea would be restored over about 90 years. Possible versions of the recovery scenario are discussed and assessed.