Prospects of Using Tree-Ring Earlywood and Latewood Width for Reconstruction of Crops Yield on Example of South Siberia
Open Access
- 1 February 2021
- Vol. 12 (2), 174
- https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020174
Abstract
Improvement of dendrochronological crops yield reconstruction by separate application of earlywood and latewood width chronologies succeeded in rain-fed semiarid region. (1) Background: Tree-ring width chronologies have been successfully applied for crops yield reconstruction models. We propose application of separated earlywood and latewood width chronologies as possible predictors improving the fitness of reconstruction models. (2) Methods: The generalized yield series of main crops (spring wheat, spring barley, oats) were investigated in rain-fed and irrigated areas in semiarid steppes of South Siberia. Chronologies of earlywood, latewood, and total ring width of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) growing in forest-steppe in the middle of the study area were tested as predictors of yield reconstruction models. (3) Results: In the rain-fed territory, separation of earlywood and latewood allowed increasing variation of yield explained by reconstruction model from 17.4 to 20.5%, whereas total climatic-driven component of variation was 41.5%. However, both tree-ring based models explained only 7.7% of yield variation in the irrigated territory (climate inclusion increased it to 34.8%). Low temperature sensitivity of larch growth was the main limitation of the model. A 240-year (1780–2019) history of crop failures and yield variation dynamics were estimated from the actual data and the best reconstruction model. (4) Conclusions: Presently in the study region, breeding of the environment-resistant crops varieties compensates the increase of temperature in the yield dynamics, preventing severe harvest losses. Tree-ring based reconstructions may help to understand and forecast response of the crops to the climatic variability, and also the probability of crop failures, particularly in the rain-fed territories.Funding Information
- Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (FSRZ-2020-0010)
- Russian Foundation for Basic Research (20-016-00049)
This publication has 67 references indexed in Scilit:
- Age-dependent climate–growth relationships and regeneration ofPicea abiesin a drought-prone mixed-coniferous forest in the AlpsCanadian Journal of Forest Research, 2013
- High temperature combined with drought affect rainfed spring wheat and barley in South-Eastern Russia: I. Phenology and growthSaudi Journal of Biological Sciences, 2012
- Major Mesoamerican droughts of the past millenniumGeophysical Research Letters, 2011
- The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate changeRegional Environmental Change, 2010
- A modeling framework for inferring tree growth and allocation from physiological, morphological and allometric traitsTree Physiology, 2009
- Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?New Phytologist, 2008
- Tree-Ring Reconstructed Maize Yield in Central Mexico: 1474–2001Climatic Change, 2006
- Reconstructed Temperature And Precipitation On A Millennial Timescale From Tree-Rings In The Southern Colorado Plateau, U.S.A.Climatic Change, 2005
- Genetic variability, correlated response and path analysis of yield and yield contributing traits of spring wheatJournal of Bangladesh Agricultural University, 1970
- EAR LENGTH AND SPIKELET NUMBER OF WHEAT GROWN AT DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT INTENSITIESCanadian Journal of Botany, 1965