Future Range Dynamics Suggest Increasing Threats of Grey Squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) against Red Squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) in Europe: A Perspective on Climatic Suitability
Open Access
- 2 June 2023
- Vol. 14 (6), 1150
- https://doi.org/10.3390/f14061150
Abstract
Interactions between the introduced gray squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) and the native red squirrel (S. vulgaris) play an important role in the ecological equilibrium of European forest ecosystems. However, the range dynamics of the grey squirrel and red squirrel under future climate change scenarios remain unknown. The present study examined the range dynamics of grey squirrels and red squirrels in Europe and their range overlap now and in the future based on climate change. Under the most optimistic climate change scenario (SSP126), expansion of the grey squirrel’s range was mainly predicted in Germany, France, Croatia, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Under the most pessimistic climate change scenario (SSP585), expansion of the grey squirrel’s range was predicted in vast and scattered regions. Additionally, France, Italy, and Germany were overlapping ranges for the grey squirrel and red squirrel in the future under the SSP126 scenario but not under the current conditions, suggesting that there will be new regions where grey squirrels may threaten red squirrels in the future under SSP126. The range overlaps under the SSP585 scenario but not under the current conditions were vast and scattered, suggesting that there will be new regions in the future where grey squirrel may displace red squirrels under SSP585. Despite considerable variation, we detected expansions in the grey squirrel and red squirrel ranges and an increase in overlapping ranges between grey squirrels and red squirrels in the future. Therefore, our prediction suggests increasing threats of grey squirrels toward red squirrels in Europe in the future under climate change, which may impact the ecological equilibrium of European forest ecosystems.Keywords
Funding Information
- the National Science Foundation of China (31560178)
This publication has 72 references indexed in Scilit:
- Sensitivity of natural vegetation to climate change in the Euro-Mediterranean areaClimate Research, 2011
- Climate‐induced changes in the small mammal communities of the Northern Great Lakes RegionGlobal Change Biology, 2009
- How well do we understand the impacts of alien species on ecosystem services? A pan‐European, cross‐taxa assessmentFrontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2009
- Predicting the spread of the American grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in Europe: A call for a co-ordinated European approachBiological Conservation, 2008
- The identification of 100 ecological questions of high policy relevance in the UKJournal of Applied Ecology, 2006
- Modelling the Expansion of a Grey Squirrel population: Implications for Squirrel ControlBiological Invasions, 2006
- Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributionsEcography, 2005
- Conserving red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris): mapping and forecasting habitat suitability using a Geographic Information Systems ApproachBiological Conservation, 2002
- Modelling the distribution of red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) on the Isle of WightAnimal Conservation, 1999
- The Grey Squirrel: the Introduction and Spread of the American Grey Squirrel in the British Isles, its Habits, Food and Relations with the Native Fauna of the CountryNature, 1933