A Comprehensive Forecasting–Optimization Analysis Framework for Environmental-Oriented Power System Management—A Case Study of Harbin City, China
Open Access
- 22 May 2020
- journal article
- research article
- Published by MDPI AG in Sustainability
- Vol. 12 (10), 4272
- https://doi.org/10.3390/su12104272
Abstract
In this study, a comprehensive research framework coupled with electric power demand forecasting, a regional electric system planning model, and post-optimization analysis is proposed for electric power system management. For dealing with multiple forms of uncertainties and dynamics concerning energy utilization, capacity expansions, and environmental protection, the inexact two-stage stochastic robust programming optimization model was developed. The novel programming method, which integrates interval parameter programming (IPP), stochastic robust optimization (SRO), and two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), was applied to electric power system planning and management in Harbin, China. Furthermore, the Gray-Markov approach was employed for effective electricity consumption prediction, and the forecasted results can be described as interval values with corresponding occurrence probability, aiming to produce viable input parameters of the optimization model. Ten scenarios were analyzed with different emissions reduction levels and electricity power structure adjustment modes, and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) was selected to identify the most influential factors of planning decisions by selecting the optimal scheme. The results indicate that a diversified power structure that dominates by thermal power and is mainly supplemented by biomass power should be formed to ensure regional sustainable development and electricity power supply security in Harbin. In addition, power structure adjustment is more effective than the pollutants emission control for electricity power system management. The results are insightful for supporting supply-side energy reform, generating an electricity generation scheme, adjusting energy structures, and formulating energy consumption of local policies.This publication has 47 references indexed in Scilit:
- Decision support for strategic energy planning: A robust optimization frameworkEuropean Journal of Operational Research, 2020
- Coordinated Energy Management for Micro Energy Systems Considering Carbon Emissions Using Multi-Objective OptimizationEnergies, 2019
- Robust Design Optimization of Electromagnetic Actuators for Renewable Energy Systems Considering the Manufacturing CostEnergies, 2019
- Energy Life-Cycle Assessment of Fruit Products—Case Study of Beira Interior’s Peach (Portugal)Sustainability, 2018
- Emergy-based evaluation and improvement for sustainable manufacturing systems considering resource efficiency and environment performanceEnergy Conversion and Management, 2018
- Benefit maximization of demand side management operator (DSMO) and private investor in a distribution networkSustainable Cities and Society, 2018
- An inexact optimization model for regional electric system steady operation management considering integrated renewable resourcesEnergy, 2017
- A hybrid multi-stage stochastic programming-robust optimization model for maximizing the supply chain of a forest-based biomass power plant considering uncertaintiesJournal of Cleaner Production, 2016
- A model for long-term electricity expansion planning with endogenous environmental costsInternational Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 2013
- Multi-objective planning of electrical distribution systems using dynamic programmingInternational Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 2012