Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions
- 27 January 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by IOP Publishing in Environmental Research Letters
- Vol. 16 (3)
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe06b
Abstract
Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), including aerosols and chemically reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and methane, offer a potential way to mitigate climate change and improve air quality--so called "win-win" mitigation policies. Prior studies support improved air quality under NTCF mitigation, but with conflicting climate impacts that range from a significant reduction in the rate of global warming to only a modest impact. Here, we use state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) to quantify the 21st-century impact of NTCF reductions, using a realistic future emission scenario with a consistent air quality policy. Non-methane NTCF (NMNTCF; aerosols and ozone precursors) mitigation improves air quality, but leads to significant increases in global mean precipitation of 1.3% by mid-century and 1.4% by end-of-the-century, and corresponding surface warming of 0.23 and 0.21 K. NTCF (all-NTCF; including methane) mitigation further improves air quality, with larger reductions of up to 45% for ozone pollution, while offsetting half of the wetting by mid-century (0.7% increase) and all the wetting by end-of-the-century (non-significant 0.1% increase) and leading to surface cooling of -0.15 K by mid-century and -0.50 K by end-of-the-century. This suggests that methane mitigation offsets warming induced from reductions in NMNTCFs, while also leading to net improvements in air quality.Funding Information
- Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (JPMXD1420318865)
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20172003, JPMEERF20202003, and JPMEERF20205)
- European Commission (CRESCENDO)
- Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JP18H03363, JP18H05292, JP19K12312 and JP20K04070)
- Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program (KMA2018-00321)
- UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund
- Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101))
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