Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections
Open Access
- 12 February 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Springer Science and Business Media LLC in Scientific Reports
- Vol. 11 (1), 1-7
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83279-w
Abstract
Estimates of future flood risk rely on projections from climate models. The relatively few climate models used to analyze future flood risk cannot easily quantify of their associated uncertainties. In this study, we demonstrated that the projected fluvial flood changes estimated by a new generation of climate models, the collectively known as Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), are similar to those estimated by CMIP5. The spatial patterns of the multi-model median signs of change (+ or −) were also very consistent, implying greater confidence in the projections. The model spread changed little over the course of model development, suggesting irreducibility of the model spread due to internal climate variability, and the consistent projections of models from the same institute suggest the potential to reduce uncertainties caused by model differences. Potential global exposure to flooding is projected to be proportional to the degree of warming, and a greater threat is anticipated as populations increase, demonstrating the need for immediate decisions.Funding Information
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan (JPMEERF20202005)
- Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (JPMXD0717935457)
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (18H01540)
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