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Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 59, pp 1-13; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2020.16784

Abstract:
Straipsnyje atliekamas Lietuvos Respublikos Vyriausybės 2014–2020 metų užimtumo didinimo programoje pateiktų pagrindinių darbo rinkos rodiklių vertinimas. Remiantis šiais rodikliais analizuojama situacija darbo rinkoje bei tendencijos šalyje, stebimi nukrypimai nuo prognozuotų rodiklių (numatytų užimtumo programos įgyvendinimo siekių) reikšmių, įvertinamos jų tobulinimo galimybės. Nepaisant bendrųjų situacijos darbo rinkoje rodiklių analizės svarbos, vienas iš esminių šios publikacijos prioritetų – užimtumo programoje išskirtų tikslinių grupių integracijos galimybių įvertinimas, kurios išreiškiamos remiantis darbo rinkos politikos rezultatus atspindinčiais rodikliais. Atsižvelgiant į užimtumo programoje pateiktų darbo rinkos rodiklių sistemą, kurie daugiausia orientuoti į darbo vietų kaitą (kūrimą), prioritetas teikiamas užimtumo rodikliams. Be tiesiogiai darbo rinkos politikos rezultatus atspindinčių statistinių duomenų, straipsnyje analizuojami ir papildomi tikslinių grupių situaciją darbo rinkoje atspindintys rodikliai.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 58, pp 39-47; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2019.16669

Abstract:
We investigate linear and nonlinear hypotheses testing in a Cox proportional hazards model for right-censored survival data when the covariates are subject to measurement errors. In Kukush and Chernova (2018) [Theor. Probability and Math. Statist. 96, 101–110], a consistent simultaneous estimator is introduced for the baseline hazard rate and the vector of regression parameters. Therein the baseline hazard rate belongs to an unbounded set of nonnegative Lipschitz functions, with fixed constant, and the vector of regression parameters belongs to a compact parameter set. Based on the estimator, we develop two procedures to test nonlinear and linear hypotheses about the vector of regression parameters: Wald-type and score-type tests. The latter is based on an unbiased estimating equation. The consistency of the tests is shown.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 58, pp 4-15; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2019.16665

Abstract:
The article analyzes the foreign-born population of Lithuania, its age and ethnic composition, and periods of arrival to Lithuania. The analysis is based on the 2011 Lithuanian Population Census data. The results of the analysis show that the foreign-born population of Lithuania is very heterogeneous and has three major groups formed at different times, by different immigration factors and flows, they are different by age and ethnic composition. Most of foreign-born population of Lithuania is formed during the Soviet era - those who arrived from the former USSR. Among them the majority are of Russians, but a quite large part - Lithuanians who arrived since the mid-sixties of 20th century (children of deportees). The youngest generation of the emerging foreign-born generation is from Western European countries.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 58, pp 26-38; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2019.16668

Abstract:
We propose a methodology for estimating the cost of the basic needs and applying it on the data for Lithuania in a decade after the EU accession (2006-2016). The basic food costs account for the minimal nutrition requirements, while the cost of other needs is estimated in relative terms, taking actual consumption patterns in the population into account. A reduction in the cost of the basic needs for additional members of the household is accounted for by a specially constructed consumption-based equivalence scale estimated on the HBS data. We show that the cost of the basic needs in Lithuania is close to the relative at-risk-of-poverty line (at 60% of the median equivalized disposable income) for a single adult but exceeds it for larger households. The share of people with income below the basic needs’ cost was above the relative at-risk-of-poverty levels in the EU-SILC data for all years, except of 2016. Albeit, the actual level might be lower due to the under-reporting of shadow income in the EU-SILC. Ability to meet basic needs and related absolute poverty indicators shows anti-cyclical dynamics in times of the economic growth and recession. Children are consistently the most deprived group of the Lithuanian population when it comes to meeting the basic needs. The official absolute poverty indicator used in Lithuania under-estimates the cost of the basic needs for households with more than one member.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 58, pp 16-25; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2019.16666

Abstract:
This paper focuses on the quality of household age distribution from two surveys in developing countries. Age and sex data serve as the base population for the estimation of demographic parameters (fertility, mortality, etc.) and other socio-economic indicators. The ultimate objective is to evaluate the age and sex data from two surveys to determine the one with better age and sex reporting that may provide quality base populations for the estimation of demographic parameters and socioeconomic indicators. Algebraic methods were applied to the data retrieved from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). The overall results show that the quality of data from the two surveys is poor. It is observed that age and sex data from the Nigerian DHS appear to be better than that of MICS while in Bangladesh, Malawi, and Nepal the reverse is the case based on the Joint Scores (JS). The result further shows that Malawi with high literacy respondents had better JS than the other countries indicating that the level of education may be one of the determinants of the quality of age and sex data. Therefore, it is recommended that care and caution should be taken during data collection to reduce the effect of misreporting of age and the usual practice of eliciting vital records of the respondents such as age from the head of the household instead of birth certificates should be discouraged. More importantly, evaluation of age and sex data from different surveys should be done before usage to ascertain the survey with a better quality of data without always presuming that one survey is of better quality than the other.
Aleksandras Plikusas
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 57, pp 1-3; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2018.12831

Abstract:
[text in English and Lithuanian]
Stanislovas Algimantas Martišius
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 57, pp 5-13; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2018.1

Abstract:
[straipsnis ir santrauka lietuvių kalba; santrauka anglų kalba] Lietuvos ūkis per paskutinį šimtmetį patyrė labai daug pokyčių. Tik atgavus nepriklausomybę (1918 m.) Lietuvai reikėjo viską pradėti nuo pradžių, t. y. labai sudėtingose politinėse peripetijose reikėjo kuo greičiau kurti savo ūkį. Viso to pradžia buvo smulkus ir vidutinis verslas, amatai, mažmeninė prekyba. Deja, Lietuva neturėjo savarankiško, verslaus ir gyvenimo inovacijoms neabejingo verslininkų sluoksnio. Tam buvo tiek objektyvių (pasaulinė ekonominė krizė), tiek subjektyvių (apyvartinių lėšų stoka, menka perkamoji galia, valstybės institucijų biurokratizmas ir pan.) priežasčių. Tarpukario laikotarpis buvo per trumpas, kad šalies ūkis pasiektų reikšmingesnių rezultatų nors tam tikros sąlygos buvo palankios, o socialinės politikos srityje buvo nemažai nuveikta. Dabarties politikai ir ekonomistai galėtų pasimokyti iš to meto politinio įžvalgumo, ekonominio racionalumo, teisinės technikos. Deja, antrasis pasaulinis karas ir po jo sekęs autoritarinis Sovietų Sąjungos ekonomikos pobūdis nulėmė to meto Lietuvos ūkio pobūdį, kaitos neracionalumą. Nepriklausomybės atkūrimas daug kam buvo nelauktas. Teko pradėti tvarkyti Lietuvos ūkį, neturint beveik jokio praktinio ir mokslinio įdirbio, reikalingo objektyvioms ir prasmingoms ekonominėms reformoms atlikti. Norint Lietuvai orientuotis į europinius valdymo standartus, būtina iš esmės pagerinti visų sričių vadybą. Lietuvos mokslas dar nepakankamai orientuotas į taikomuosius tyrimus, natūralų teorijos ir praktikos sujungimą. Tapę Europos Sąjungos nariais, turime gebėti save realizuoti. Tik visuotinė gerovė, aukštas kultūros lygis ir gerai išsilavinęs jaunimas bei geras demokratijos idealų supratimas leis Lietuvai tapti pilnaverte laisvos ES nare. Per ribinio naudingumo teoriją, keinsizmą, neoklasikus, monetarizmą, neoliberalizmą ir institucionalistų pažiūras bandoma formuoti politologų ir ekonomistų bendrą tyrimų lauką. Didžiausias XX a. ekonomikos mokslo laimėjimas – makroekonominės teorijos sukūrimas. Didelis nuopelnas tenka Nobelio premijos laureatams: Milton′ui Friedman′ui, James′ui Tobin′ui, Franco′ui Modigliani′ui, Lawrence′ui R. Klein′ui, Robert′ui M. Solow′ui ir kt. Deja, Lietuvos atgimimo kelyje vyksta atvirkštinis procesas: socialinių mokslų susiskaidymas, t. y. užsienyje socialinių mokslų srityje daugiausia atliekama teorinių, o ne empirinių tyrimų. Tačiau Lietuvoje to pasigendama. Tarpukario laikotarpio intelektualų (D. Cesevičius, D. Budrys, P. Padalskis ir kt.) minčių tęsėjų gretos labai retos. Dabartiniams Lietuvos ekonomistams dažnai trūksta nuoseklumo ir plataus teorinio pasirengimo. Manyčiau, kad XXI a. rengiamiems ekonomistams reikėtų gerokai sustiprinti matematizuotos ekonominės teorijos dėstymą. Be to, jie patys turėtų gebėti tokias teorijas ne tik interpretuoti, bet ir kurti naujas. Būtina ekonomikos teorijos ir praktikos simbiozė.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 57, pp 14-27; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2018.2

Abstract:
[straipsnis ir santrauka lietuvių kalba; santrauka anglų kalba] Lietuvoje ir kitose išsivysčiusiose šalyse stebimi nevienareikšmiai gimstamumo pokyčiai ilgą laiką išliekant žemam gimstamumo lygiui, skatina ieškoti teorinių perspektyvų ir formaliosios demografijos metodų, galinčių paaiškinti susiklosčiusią situaciją. Tyrimo tikslas – išanalizuoti vaikų susilaukimo ir laimės ryšius Lietuvoje, aptariant gali-mybes vertinti šiuos ryšius. Tyrime remiamasi naujausiomis gimstamumo teorinėmis idėjomis, aiškinančiomis laimės ir vaikų susilaukimo sąsajas, ir naudojama trijų tarptautinių tyrimų – Šeimos ir gimstamumo (1994–1995 m.), Gyventojų poli-tikos vertinimo (2001 m.), Kartų ir lyčių (2006 m.) – duomenų analizė. Analizuojant duomenis taikomas binarinės logistinės regresijos metodas. Atliktos duomenų analizės rezultatai leidžia patvirtinti keliamą hipotezę, kad yra ryšys tarp laimės ir vaikų (ne)susilaukimo, nors ir nevienareikšmis.
Laura Lukšaitė-Balakauskienė
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 57, pp 70-80; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2018.6

Abstract:
[full article, abstract in English; abstract in Lithuanian] The present paper introduces the main principles of the quality management system of Statistics Lithuania, which is based on the ISO 9001 standard, and explains how the system promotes user confidence in statistics through the regular quality monitoring and reporting exercise. It is explained how the quality of statistics is measured and presented to the public; the usefulness of quality reports to the users, especially to researchers and academia, is discussed. Moreover, some results from the monitoring exercise and examples of quality reports are presented.
, Nomeda Bratčikovienė
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 57, pp 56-69; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2018.5

Abstract:
[straipsnis ir santrauka lietuvių kalba; santrauka anglų kalba] Šiame straipsnyje nagrinėjamos didžiųjų duomenų regresinės analizės galimybės ir galimi sunkumai. Straipsnyje išskirtos ir paaiškintos pagrindinės juos nusakančios charakteristikos, nustatyti galimi iššūkiai, kylantys didžiųjų duomenų analitikoje. Atsižvelgiant į tai, pasiūlyta keletas didžiųjų duomenų regresinėje analizėje naudojamų metodų, kurie leidžia sumažinti skaičiavimų naštą ir atrinkti nepriklausomus kintamuosius, geriausiai nusakančius priklausomą kintamąjį, bei pasiekti didesnį modelio tikslumą. Vienas iš darbo tikslų – metodų pritaikymas realiems didiesiems duomenims, todėl didelis dėmesys skiriamas tiriamajai daliai. Realių duomenų regresijos modelių sudarymui ir parametrų vertinimui naudojami išskaidytos ir stebinių įtakos indeksu paremtos regresijos metodai, o geriausiai priklausomąjį kintamąjį nusakančių nepriklausomų kintamųjų atrinkimui naudojama LASSO ir LARS regresija. Straipsnyje taip pat pateikiami atlikti modelių tinkamumo ir tikslumo vertinimai, jų tarpusavio rezultatų palyginimai.
, Rasa Miežienė
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 57, pp 28-40; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2018.3

Abstract:
[straipsnis ir santrauka lietuvių kalba; santrauka anglų kalba] Straipsnis parengtas remiantis Nacionalinės mokslo programos „Gerovės visuomenė“ 2017–2018 m. projekto „Regioniniai gerovės skirtumai Lietuvoje“ rezultatais (projekto Nr. GER-005/2017). Projektą finansuoja Lietuvos mokslo taryba. Publikacijoje vertinamos ilgalaikio nedarbo tendencijos šalyje ir bedarbių skaičiaus raida pagal nedarbo trukmę, analizuojami ilgalaikio nedarbo lygio skirtumai Lietuvoje ir lyginami su ES šalimis. Bene esminiai šios publikacijos prioritetai – regioninių ilgalaikio nedarbo skirtumų įvertinimas bei kaimo ir miesto gyventojų ilgalaikio nedarbo skirtumų kaitos analizė. Atsižvelgiant į informacijos disponavimo ir jos palyginamumo galimybes, tyrimo eigoje pasinaudota Lietuvos statistikos departamento (LSD), Europos Sąjungos statistikos tarnybos (Eurostato) bei Užimtumo tarnybos1 prie Lietuvos Respublikos socialinės apsaugos ir darbo ministerijos (Užimtumo tarnybos) duomenimis.
Vaida Tretjakova, Gintarė Pociūtė-Sereikienė, Rūta Ubarevičienė
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 57, pp 41-55; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2018.4

Abstract:
[straipsnis ir santrauka lietuvių kalba; santrauka anglų kalba] Straipsnio tikslas – išanalizuoti paauglių kūdikių gimstamumo kaitą Europos Sąjungos šalyse ir Lietuvoje, atskleidžiant pokyčių kryptį, mastą bei regioninę diferenciaciją. Šiame straipsnyje Lietuvos situacija lyginama su tendencijomis kitose ES šalyse. Taip pat atliekama regioninės paauglių kūdikių gimstamumo diferenciacijos Lietuvoje analizė. Straipsnyje analizuojamas bendrasis paauglių kūdikių gimstamumo rodiklis 15–19 metų amžiaus moterų grupei bei gimstamumo rodikliai 15–17 ir 18–19 metų amžiaus moterų grupėms. Tyrimas atliktas naudojant Eurostato duomenų bazės bei pagal konfidencialių statistinių duomenų teikimo mokslo tikslams sutartį specialiai šiam projektui parengtus Lietuvos statistikos departamento registruojamosios statistikos duomenis.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 41-52; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13670

Abstract:
The aim of this article is to find out the factors that influence the conjuncture of labour market in the European Union countries. The aspect of the developed and developing countries is also important in this econometric analysis. The conception of theconjuncture of labour market is described in this article. Moreover, the factors and measuring indicators of these factors are presentedin this analysis, too. The first difference (FD) model is used for econometric analysis of the conjuncture of labour market in the European Union countries. Two hypotheses are formulated in this article, but both are rejected.
Akvilė Mazanauskaitė
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 53-63; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13671

Abstract:
In this paper Nelson-Siegel model has been examined. The main purpose of this paper is to fit the best Nelson-Siegel model to the Euro Area yield curves and to compare with Lithuanian yields in order to draw conclusions about readiness of Lithuania to join the Euro Area. In order to succeed in achieving the goal, Euro Area zero coupon bonds have been examined and various static Nelson-Siegel models were developed. Also, the mean of absolute errorof the Lithuanian government treasury bills was calculated using the best-fitting Nelson-Siegel model of the Euro Areayields. The results have shown that if the static model is calculated for each year, the yield are described precisely in the model.
Arun Kumar Rao, , Kusum Lata Singh
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 88-91; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13675

Abstract:
In this paper, we have derived the probability density function of the size-biased p-dimensional Rayleigh distribution and studied its properties. Its suitability as a survival model has been discussed by obtaining its survival and hazard functions. We also discussed Bayesian estimation of the parameter of the size-biased p-dimensional Rayleigh distribution. Bayes estimators have been obtained by taking quasi-prior. The loss functions used are squared error and precautionary.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 5-17; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13667

Abstract:
The article analyses the population ageing of Lithuania for almost a hundred years. The aim of the article is to evaluate the trends of population ageing of Lithuania and to analyse the preconditions and factors of the ageing trajectory fluctuation. Based on demographic development theories and methodological insights in the estimation of influence of different factors on the ageing trends, the fundamental and specific changes in the ageing of Lithuanian population are evaluated. The analysis relies on the official information of Lithuania and international population databases.
, Donatas Burneika
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 18-30; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13668

Abstract:
The article is based on the results of National science program ‘Welfare society’ project ‘Regional disparities of welfare inLithuania’ (project number GER-005/2017). The project is funded by the Lithuanian Council of Science. The aim of the work is toestimate features of index distribution of labor market and labor resources (working-age people) in the main country regions.Considering the fact about migration changes, a lot of attention in the paper is paid to the estimation of demographic situation impacton the labour market. Apart from the ordinary statistical data, we use results of systemic poverty problem analysis in Lithuania.According to the disposition of information and its opportunities comparison, the data of counties and municipalities were usedduring the research. Different levels of information have helped to detect more detailed differences between labour markets in theregions. The comparison of different sources of information has revealed peculiarities of unemployment change and differentiationthat have not been explored as yet.
Vaidotas Kanišauskas, Karolina Piaseckienė
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 72-76; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13673

Abstract:
The first part of the paper presents major concepts and theoretical statements on prediction of processes. The second part presents the obtained results on the geometric renewal process by indicating its distribution which has a binomial distribution and is a process with independent and stationary increments. Further, having applied the theory introduced in the first part to the geometric renewal process, the sufficient and unbiased prediction with the minimum-variance has been found.
Aleksandras Plikusas
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 92-93; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13676

Abstract:
Articles on the statistical theory and methodology, on the application of statistics in economic, physical, technological, biomedical and social sciences, analyses statistical methods in official statistics, on the investigation of the history of statistics
, G. N. Amahia, Fatai Salami
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 64-71; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13672

Abstract:
The design effect for the restricted maximum likelihood estimators of variance components in acompletely randomized split-plot model is studied. The model was used to represent the response generated froman experimental scenario where the whole-plot and split-plot factors are random. The work generated groups ofbalanced designs from same number of experimental runs and compared them for optimality using the derived Fisher Information matrix of the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimators. The measure for optimalityis the D-optimality criterion; the resulting optimal designs depend on the relative magnitudes of the true values of the variance components. The results show that when the factor variances are larger than the error variances, designs where the absolute difference between the number of whole-plots and the number of levels of the splitplot factor is relatively small show substantial gain in statistical efficiency over other designs.
Stanislav Lohvinenko,
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 77-87; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13674

Abstract:
We consider the fractional Vasicek model of the form dXt = (α-βXt)dt +γdBHt , driven by fractional Brownian motion BH with Hurst parameter H ∈ (1/2,1). We construct the maximum likelihood estimators for unknown parameters α and β, and prove their consistency and asymptotic normality.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 31-40; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13669

Abstract:
Education is one of keystones that guarantees well-being of a country, therefore the understanding about the educationsystem status might be crucial. It motivates to measure the state of the education system, to understand its determinants and tomonitor changes over time that would allow the implementation of evidence-based education policy. Measurement and assessment ofthe state of the education system is a complex task, as the analysis of individual indicators of the educational system is insufficient tomonitor and evaluate education as a multidimensional phenomenon. To achieve a comprehensive and generalized assessment of theeducation system, we have chosen to calculate the composite indicators, namely, indicators of resources and outcomes. Using thelatter indicators we evaluate state of resources and output of the educational system, understand the factors, determining the state, andcompare it over time and in the context of other countries. Indices were calculated for the Baltic countries and three “old” EUmember states: UK representing the Anglo-Saxon liberal model, Germany for the Continental corporatist model and Finland as anexample of the Scandinavian model. For the analysis we used 2002-2014 annual publicly available data from EUROSTAT, OECD,and IEA databases. We have employed a simple weighted additive method with equal weights and principal components analysis forthe construction of indices. We have found that the differences between composite indicators, constructed by the simple weightedadditive method with equal and principal components analysis weights, are limited. The increase in the number of sub-indicators byalmost two-thirds does not affect dynamics of the output indices over time. We have established that inertia of the education systemis different for the countries: the impact of the output on the results is observed with 2–4 year lag for the Baltic States, as there is notime lag or there is a one year lag for Germany and the United Kingdom. Finland's results are different as compared with the othercountries examined. The dynamics of the Baltic indices is similar and possibly constitutes a separate group.
Aleksandras Plikusas
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 4-4; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13666

Abstract:
Articles on the statistical theory and methodology, on the application of statistics in economic, physical, technological, biomedical and social sciences, analyses statistical methods in official statistics, on the investigation of the history of statistics
Aleksandras Plikusas
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 56, pp 1-1; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2017.13664

Abstract:
Articles on the statistical theory and methodology, on the application of statistics in economic, physical, technological, biomedical and social sciences, analyses statistical methods in official statistics, on the investigation of the history of statistics
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 6-18; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13863

Abstract:
The paper analyses employment, activity and unemployment trends in Lithuania by sex and age, with thefocus on the monitoring of the labour market situation of different demographic groups. The possibilities of integratingwomen and men, elderly and young people into the labour market are evaluated using key labour market indicators. Differentunemployment estimation methods are used for the assessment of changes in the labour market situation of differentdemographic groups in Lithuania. Statistical data analysis is supplemented by the results of individual research.
Jovita Gudan
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 19-30; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13864

Abstract:
This paper investigates models for the euro exchange rate against the currencies of Denmark, Poland, theUnited States, and the United Kingdom. The objective of this paper is to compare different methods of modeling andout-of-sample forecasting. One of the techniques is cointegration relation, which is implemented through a vector errorcorrection model. The existence of cointegration supports the long-run relationship between the nominal exchange rateand a number of fundamental variables. The evidence presented in this paper shows that a simple multivariate randomwalk model tends to have superior predictive performance, compared to other exchange rate models, for a period of lessthan one year.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 112-118; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13873

Abstract:
We consider an approximation of a cumulative distribution function F(x) by the cumulative distributionfunction G(x) of the Irwin law. In this case, a function F(x) can be cumulative distribution functions of sums (products) ofindependent (dependent) random variables. Remainder term of the approximation is estimated by the cumulant method.The cumulant method is used by introducing special cumulants, satisfying the V. Statulevičius type condition. The mainresult is a nonuniform bound for the difference |F(x)-G(x)| in terms of special cumulants of the symmetric cumulativedistribution function F(x).
Danutė Krapavickaitė
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 1-1; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13860

Abstract:
Articles on the statistical theory and methodology, on the application of statistics in economic, physical, technological, biomedical and social sciences, analyses statistical methods in official statistics, on the investigation of the history of statistics
Danutė Krapavickaitė
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 4-5; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13861

Abstract:
Articles on the statistical theory and methodology, on the application of statistics in economic, physical, technological, biomedical and social sciences, analyses statistical methods in official statistics, on the investigation of the history of statistics
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 52-60; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13867

Abstract:
The paper analyses whether arterial hypertension, overweight, excessive drinking, smoking andinsufficient sports activity have an impact on the behaviour and emotional well-being of young people aged17–18. A questionnaire of Achenbach is used for investigating teenagers’ psychological difficulties. Categoricalvariables are analysed using logistic regression and log-linear models.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 70-80; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13869

Abstract:
We study the allocation of courses to students with multi-unit demand. Exploratory analysis of courseallocation practices at Vilnius University (VU) is performed. The allocation of students to courses is done by a simplefirst-come first-served (FCFS) procedure. We show that FCFS procedure does not deliver desirable outcomes. Data withstudent preferences is needed in order to compare assignment algorithms. We use censored regression model to constructstudent preferences generation mechanism based on empirical data collected at VU. Using simulated data several multiunitassignment algorithms are compared.
Dmytro Marushkevych,
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 91-101; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13871

Abstract:
We construct models of asset prices on the Ukrainian stock market and analyse their applicability by checkingappropriate statistical hypotheses using actual observed data. We also analyse the presence of jumps in the dynamics ofdifferent assets and estimate the Hurst coefficient for the logarithm of the price of the asset by two different methods.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 102-111; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13872

Abstract:
We consider the fractional Vasicek model of the form dXt = (α-βXt)dt + γdBHt, driven by fractional Brownian motion BH with Hurst parameter H ∈ (0,1). We construct three estimators for an unknown parameter θ=(α,β) and prove their strong consistency.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 81-90; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13870

Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to study the interplay between balanced sampling, non-response and calibratedestimator by simulation. The results of seven strategies, embracing a combination of balanced sampling via the cubemethod, simple random cluster sampling, adjustment for non-response, Horvitz–Thompson estimator of the total andcalibration of design weights, are compared. Auxiliary information is used for all strategies at least at one of the stages(sampling or estimation). This auxiliary information consists of indicator variables for sex, age groups and urban/ruralliving area, and their totals. Real Labour Force Survey data of Statistics Lithuania are used for simulation. Bias, varianceand relative mean squared error are measures of accuracy for the comparison of results.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 45-51; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13866

Abstract:
The present article investigates the sensitivity of the multiple criteria decision-making method TOPSIS in respectof attribute probability distributions. To carry out research, initial data – attribute values – were generated according to anormal, log-normal, uniform, and beta distributions. Decision matrixes were constructed from the generated data. Byapplying the TOPSIS method to the matrixes generated, result samples were received. A statistical analysis was conductedfor the results obtained, which revealed that the distributions of the initial data comply with the distributions of the resultsreceived by the TOPSIS method. According to the most common alternative rank value, it was ascertained that the TOPSISmethod is the most sensitive for data distribution according to beta distribution, and the least sensitive for data distributionaccording to lognormal distribution.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 31-44; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13865

Abstract:
In the last several decades, many countries have been paying a lot of attention to mortality forecastingbecause of high longevity risk. The purpose of this paper is to analyze mortality characteristics of Baltic countries andmake predictions using ARMA models. Research shoved that mortality rate distribution is almost the same in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and all of them represent longevity trends. It means that men and women, children and adults have thesame mortality structure in all Baltic countries and live longer than before.
Neringa Bružaitė, Tomas Rekašius
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 55, pp 61-69; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13868

Abstract:
The paper examines Lithuanian texts of different authors and genres. The main points ofinterest – the number of words, the number of different words and word frequencies. Structural type distributionand Zipf’s law are applied for describing the frequency distribution of words in the text. It is obvious that thelexical diversity of any text can be defined by different words that are used in the text, also called vocabulary.It is shown that the information contained in a reduced vocabulary is enough for dividing the texts analyzedin this article into groups by genre and author using a hierarchical clustering method. In this case, distancesbetween clusters are measured using the Jaccard distance measure, and clusters are aggregated using the Wardmethod.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 6-17; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13876

Abstract:
While Lithuania is among the countries with the highest at-risk-of-poverty rates in the European Union, povertyresearch has so far been dominated by cross-sectional poverty analysis. This paper is aimed at contributing to better understandingof poverty as a dynamic process in Lithuania by examining poverty risk persistence, transitions and triggers. Theanalysis is based on the longitudinal component of the Survey on Income and Living Conditions. The longitudinal at-risk-ofpovertyrate within the four-year panels is estimated to be at around a third of the Lithuanian population within a period of2005–2012. Poverty risk in Lithuania proved to be both widely spread and persistent. The major role of income events forpoverty risk entries and exits highlights the importance of activation into work, especially as concerns secondary householdearners and better income protection in Lithuania. While no robust evidence of poverty penalty was found for poverty exits,the incidence of poverty re-entries within the initial three-year period after poverty exit substantially exceeds poverty entryrates in the general population.
Kwaku F. Darkwah, , Maxwell Adu-Gyamfi
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 45-51; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13879

Abstract:
The Ghanaian informal sector is characterized by underemployment, bad working conditions, uncertain workrelationships and low earnings. This sector employs 80% of the workforce. Consequently, establishing an efficient tax systemthat can raise sufficient revenue to finance essential expenditures without recourse to government borrowing has been achallenge. Using time series data extracted from a revenue mobilization unit in Ghana, this paper examines the inequalities infour revenue mobilization instruments, namely self-employed tax, company tax, Pay As You Earn (PAYE) tax andmiscellaneous taxes. The study uses the theory of two-way ANOVA as the main approach for exploring the differences. Weassessed the adequacy of our theoretical approach using numerical methods. Revenues generated from the mobilizationinstruments differed significantly with exception of self-employed tax and company tax. Generally, revenue from company,self-employed and miscellaneous taxes were low, compared to Pay As You Earn (PAYE) tax. This study draws attention tothe importance of enhancing the informal sector in order to improve revenue from self-employed tax.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 33-44; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13878

Abstract:
Problems of finite population parameters estimation are analyzed in this paper. Four methods have been used for parameterestimation: sampling design-based unbiased estimator, multiple regression and logistic regression model-based estimators and James–Stein estimator. The design-based estimator is unbiased, but its standard deviation is usually high. Model-based estimators are notunbiased, but their standard deviations are low. In order to minimize the standard deviation and the bias, the James–Stein estimator isapplied. Labour force survey data of Statistics Lithuania are used for simulation to study model-based estimators for the number ofunemployed and employed persons in districts and counties, and the role of information on registered unemployment in these models.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 52-60; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13880

Abstract:
This paper presents a method for the analysis of price index changes in each branch of thecountry’s economy given changes in production factors. Cobb–Douglas production functions were evaluated foreach sector separately enabling the forecasting of production quantities. The country’s total production functionwas estimated using conditional regression. Later, an inter-branch balance problem of price and productionvolume relationship evaluation was solved using a Lithuanian input–output table. Finally, combining the estimatedproduction functions and estimated price–output relationship, Lithuanian economy-relevant scenarios ofre-emigration and retail chain Lidl investment were analysed.
Eimantas Palionis,
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 84-91; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13883

Abstract:
The paper describes various methods that can be applied to the ranking of sports teams. Using the real data of theNational Basketball Association (NBA) from the first half of the 2014–2015 season (from 2014-10-28 to 2015-02-12), teams areranked using different ranking methods. All methods are compared with each other.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 110-118; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13886

Abstract:
The tasks of making the most appropriate decisions taking into account a number of criteria are dealt with in variousfields such as engineering, industry, finance, economics and others. If the aim is to arrange the alternatives in a priority lineaccording to quantitative attributes, then multiattribute decision-making methods are suitable. Analysts using these methods usuallydo not take into account initial data errors – deviations in attribute values, in which case the decision may be unreliable. In thisarticle, several statistical analysis methods are proposed for the multicriteria decision to measure reliability: formulation of statisticalhypotheses and calculation of confidence intervals for parameters. Based on statistical analysis results, conclusions about thereliability of a multicriteria decision obtained using the TOPSIS method are formulated.
Danutė Krapavickaitė
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 1-1; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13874

Abstract:
Articles on the statistical theory and methodology, on the application of statistics in economic, physical, technological, biomedical and social sciences, analyses statistical methods in official statistics, on the investigation of the history of statistics
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 18-32; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13877

Abstract:
The author analyses the state of the shadow economy, informal employment and their trends based on differentstatistical calculation methodologies and survey data. The evaluation of the situation in Lithuania is based on the data of StatisticsLithuania, State Social Insurance Fund Board (SODRA), special surveys and results of statistical calculations. According to researchexperience, the methodological issues of evaluation of informal employment are discussed. Assiduous attention is paid to theevaluation and the scope of the shadow economy and the comparative analysis of informal employment issues in the EU. Whileassessing the trends in the shadow economy, the indicators from the research of different authors or institutions are compared usingdifferent calculation methods – to determine relative trends in the shadow economy.
Vytautas Kėdaitis, Justina Girčytė
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 61-68; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13881

Abstract:
The paper deals with the assessment of the performance of Lithuanian credit unions applying a cluster analysismethod, in particular the Probit regression model, substantiates their relevance and reliability for the evaluation of the resultsobtained, checks the model stability taking into account the time lag, assesses the relevance of the model for the performance analysisof Lithuanian credit unions.
Danutė Krapavickaitė
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 4-5; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13875

Abstract:
Articles on the statistical theory and methodology, on the application of statistics in economic, physical, technological, biomedical and social sciences, analyses statistical methods in official statistics, on the investigation of the history of statistics
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 101-109; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13885

Abstract:
The data were collected by researchers at the Road Research Institute, in a study investigating the impact of differentfactors on road surface strength. In this statistical analysis, we apply linear mixed models (LMMs) to clustered longitudinal data, inwhich the units of analysis (points in the road) are nested within clusters (sample of four different road segments), and repeatedmeasures of road strength in these different points are collected over time with unequally spaced time intervals. The data arebalanced – each cluster has the same number of units, which are measured at the same number of time points. Because of correlateddata and different clusters in which data could be correlated, linear regression models are not appropriate here, and therefore linearmixed models are applied.
Bernardo Jo˜ao Rota, Thomas Laitila
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 69-83; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13882

Abstract:
Sample and population auxiliary information have been demonstrated to be useful and yield approximately equal resultsin large samples. Several functional forms of weights are suggested in the literature. This paper studies the properties of calibrationestimators when the functional form of response probability is assumed to be known. The focus is on the difference between populationand sample level auxiliary information, the latter being demonstrated to be more appropriate for estimating the coefficients in theresponse probability model. Results also suggest a two-step procedure, using sample information for model coefficient estimation inthe first step and calibration estimation of the study variable total in the second step.
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, Volume 54, pp 92-100; https://doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2015.13884

Abstract:
The aim of the paper is to assess the distributional non-homogeneity of texts in the usage of functional words andother linguistic units. Our empirical study is based on recommended school fiction works taken from a digital library athttp://ebiblioteka.mkp.emokykla.lt. Sets of frequent word forms, called markers, are made, and their frequency counts in blocks of 50successive sentences are calculated. The frequency counts of the markers show significant excess variability (overdispersion) withrespect to a text homogeneity model usually assumed in linguistics. For chosen markers, different kinds of hierarchical binomiallogistic regression models with the author's identifier, the block length and the frequency counts of the remaining markers as explanatory variables are fitted to the block data in order to explain the observed overdispersion of the markers chosen.
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