(searched for: pmid:32074480)
Infectious Diseases of Poverty, Volume 9, pp 1-9; https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00685-4
Background As COVID-19 makes its way around the globe, each nation must decide when and how to respond. Yet many knowledge gaps persist, and many countries lack the capacity to develop complex models to assess risk and response. This paper aimed to meet this need by developing a model that uses case reporting data as input and provides a four-tiered risk assessment output. Methods We used publicly available, country/territory level case reporting data to determine median seeding number, mean seeding time (ST), and several measures of mean doubling time (DT) for COVID-19. We then structured our model as a coordinate plane with ST on the x-axis, DT on the y-axis, and mean ST and mean DT dividing the plane into four quadrants, each assigned a risk level. Sensitivity analysis was performed and countries/territories early in their outbreaks were assessed for risk. Results Our main finding was that among 45 countries/territories evaluated, 87% were at high risk for their outbreaks entering a rapid growth phase epidemic. We furthermore found that the model was sensitive to changes in DT, and that these changes were consistent with what is officially known of cases reported and control strategies implemented in those countries. Conclusions Our main finding is that the ST/DT Model can be used to produce meaningful assessments of the risk of escalation in country/territory-level COVID-19 epidemics using only case reporting data. Our model can help support timely, decisive action at the national level as leaders and other decision makers face of the serious public health threat that is COVID-19.
Published: 1 May 2020
Iranian journal of medical sciences, Volume 45, pp 157-169
The outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed a significant threat to many countries. Since the disease does not currently have a particular treatment, there is a compelling need to find substitute means to dominate its expansion. In this rapid review, we aimed to determine some countries' public responses to the COVID-19 epidemic. In this study, academic databases, including MEDLINE, Scopus, and Embase, were investigated. The keywords applied in the search strategy besides the names of each country were: "Public Health," "Public Response", "Health Policy", "COVID-19", "Novel Coronavirus," "2019-nCoV", and "SARS-CoV-2". The countries included China, Italy, Iran, Spain, South Korea, Germany, France, United States, Australia, Canada, Japan, and Singapore. The total number of retrieved articles in MEDLINE, Scopus, and Embase in April 2020 was 594, and after removing 259 duplicate articles, 335 papers were screened by the experts. After this investigation, 50 articles, in addition to 12 webpages, were extensively reviewed for the results section. Public health strategies and responses can be divided into four main areas, including monitoring, public education, crowd controlling, and care facilities. According to the results of the management decisions of some governments on quarantining, social isolation, screening methods, and flight suspensions due to the severity and anonymity of COVID-19, it is highly assured that these strategies would be the most successful approaches to confront the present pandemic. Governments should put in place timely and strict measures to halt the spread and diminish its unintended deadly consequences.