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Published: 11 October 2021
Abstract:
Deposit insurance system (DIS) exists for 17 years in Russia. The major deposit market share belongs to state banks. Ordinary depositors may perceive the status of the bank state ownership to reflect additional deposit safety, even in the excess of the DIS limits. Such a situation is called an “implicit deposit insurance” in the literature. By offering a sort of implicit deposit insurance services state banks might underprice the deposits in excess of DIS limits compared to the private banks. We utilize data from the open sources to measure the scale of the implicit deposit insurance pricing in Russian state banks. We have revealed that Russian state banks pay extra premium all other things being equal. More specifically, the premium is larger in the smallest and the largest state banks, than in the medium-sized ones. Thus, we claim that the implicit insurance premium has a U-shaped form for Russian state banks depending on their asset size. However, Russian state banks underprice all deposits all other things being equal. Additionally, we find out that IRB banks in Russia are more prone to set up higher deposit rates when they take on more risks, than non-IRB banks.
O. E. Kuzina,
Published: 11 October 2021
Abstract:
The article presents the justification of the methodology for studying the strategies of financial behavior of the population, the dynamics of their prevalence in Russia in the period 2009—2020, as well as the assessment of the influence of socio-demographic variables on the probability of having a financial strategy in the household. The analysis of the data obtained from “Monitoring of the financial behavior of the population” for 2009—2020 has demonstrated that the financial planning horizon of the majority of Russians does not exceed one year, about 50% of Russians have long-term financial goals, and about 30% have strategies to achieve them. A positive relationship has been revealed with a number of socio-demographic characteristics that fit into the logic of the life cycle: age, presence of children, higher education and income.
A. N. Lyakin
Published: 11 October 2021
Abstract:
The book under review reveals the complexities of transition processes and the evolution of reformers, elites and society’s notions of those processes nature. Four major blocks of problems are analyzed in the monograph: the nature of Russian capitalism which is determined by special features of its formation; the generality of transition processes of the economies that found themselves in the middle income trap; the impact of social inequality on the solution of economic, social and environmental problems. The monograph proves the transformation processes success evaluation criteria, and highlights the conditions that are necessary in order to achieve positive results of reforms. The cluster approach used in the analysis of intercountry inequality makes it possible to point out a number of stylized facts showcasing the lack of convergence in the economic growth course. The paper proves that the existing scale of social inequality makes it impossible to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
I. N. Gurov, E. Y. Kulikova
Published: 11 October 2021
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to determine how the impact of the bank lending structure on economic growth differs depending on the level of a country’s development. The article provides suggestions on how much one can rely on the leading growth of corporate and consumer bank lending in order to promote economic growth. The study is based on the panel data for 211 countries for the period 1990—2019 using methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis. The authors have identified three groups of the countries where the impact of the bank lending structure on economic growth is different. In the least developed and low-income countries, the leading growth of both consumer and corporate lending has a positive impact on economic growth. As GDP per capita reaches 4,700—7,000 constant 2010 U.S. dollars, the outstripping growth of consumer lending begins to negatively affect economic growth, while corporate lending continues to have a positive impact. As GDP per capita continues to increase, corporate lending also begins to negatively affect economic growth. The GDP per capita threshold level, after which the negative impact of corporate lending begins, ranges from 6,000 to 42,000 constant 2010 U.S. dollars, some estimates allow us to specify these limits from 13,000 to 22,000 constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Such broad boundaries are determined by the fact that the role of the banking sector in investments financing may differ because of the financial sector model and the national economy structure. However, our results show that in the most developed and high-income countries, faster growth in corporate lending will not contribute to economic growth. The study also finds that the share of mortgage loans in GDP has a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth in all groups of the countries.
L. M. Grigoryev, Z. S. Elkina, P. A. Mednikova, D. A. Serova, M. F. Starodubtseva, E. S. Filippova
Published: 11 October 2021
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic forced the governments of almost all countries to introduce lockdowns in 2020, which sharply reduced the supply in a number of large service sectors: transport, recreation, catering, tourism. The recession began without a crisis, and the unique supply of cheap money and fiscal incentives prevented the development of a “liquidity crunch”. On the contrary, it led to an increase in stock prices, real estate prices, and a reduction in bankruptcies. There was no drop in the value of pension and investment funds. The working population has faced a reduction in employment in labor-intensive service industries, a violation of traditional lifestyle models. The course of the recession in these conditions has changed the structure of personal consumption in developed countries, with its severe adaptation in medium-developed and less developed countries. The pandemic and the recession have caused an uneven compression of activity and consumption across social strata that leads to an increase in social disparities on exiting the recession. The drivers of the demand-side recovery in developed countries are the growth of investments in housing and durable goods, and developing countries are gradually restoring normal consumption of non-durable goods and exports.
, G. F. Yusupova
Published: 11 October 2021
Abstract:
Using publicly available information, the article examines the economic concepts, which underlie the arguments of the decision of Polish competition authority UOKiK in relation to the participants of the Nord Stream 2. It explains the interrelation between economic and legal concepts, which are to be applied to interpret the competitive impact of joint venture and probable theory of harm for infrastructure investments under competition law of European Union, including in comparison with Russian competition law. It has been demonstrated that the resolution of a consortium case should be based on the proof of two statements. The first statement implies that the joint venture is a firm (and therefore the creation of a joint venture is a deal leading to economic concentration). The second statement means that despite Gazprom adopted the commitments about decision of the European Commission and trends in the development of the European gas market, the possibility of price discrimination is retained. Discussion and contestation of the decision against PJSC Gazprom testify in favor of maintaining the relevance of institutional studies and studies of industry markets for resolving legal disputes arising from the application of competition law.
Published: 11 October 2021
Abstract:
The crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic has prompted governments and central banks to take unorthodox measures aimed at protecting the standard of living of people and sustaining the production and service activities of companies. The policy of aggressively rising the supply of money has entailed a significant increase in the budget deficit and public debt. It is important to consider the extent of its impact on the escalation of inflation processes and to formulate suggestions regarding the economic policy. Inflation is already higher than the official indicators show it, because it is partly suppressed. The increase in the general price level does not fully reflect the actual inflation rate. We are dealing with shortageflation — the simultaneous occurrence of price inflation and repressed inflation accompanied by shortages. It is methodologically interesting to compare this current phenomenon, 3.0, with the suppression of inflation in the war economy, 1.0, and in the economies of state socialism, 2.0. Such comparisons highlight not only the similarities of these processes but also the differences resulting from the specificity of responses of households and businesses. This article discusses five channels of unloading excessive savings, indicating the most beneficial ones from the point of view of sustainable economic development in the post-pandemic future. It is particularly important to prompt the conversion of compulsory savings into voluntary ones and at the same time to stimulate the transformation of inflationary monetary reserves into the effective demand expanding the use of existing production capacities and investments in creating new capacities.
E. V. Bessonova, S. M. Myakisheva, A. N. Tsvetkova
Published: 11 October 2021
Abstract:
The new coronavirus pandemic has triggered an economic crisis different from other crises in the acuteness and non-uniformity of its impact on various sectors of the economy. This paper analyzes how the dynamics of firms entering and exiting the market have changed in this environment and which groups of firms have shown to be the most vulnerable to the negative effect of the crisis. Our analysis shows that the number of newly registered firms dwindled sharply in the period of the toughest restrictions imposed to curtail the infection spread in April — May 2020. The recovery which followed in the subsequent months has failed to compensate for the spring’s slump, which may suggest a “scarring impact” of the crisis. July and October 2020 saw a substantial rise in companies’ exits from the market. The crisis has hurt not only the hardest hit industries but also other areas of economic activity. Liquidations rose most extensively among young firms aged less than three years. Relatively higher productivity firms exited less often than lower productivity companies. This may suggest a “cleansing effect” of the crisis. But with the redundant labor being unable to move to more productive firms, the positive effect of the crisis may be brought to naught. Therefore, for the consequences of the crisis to be remedied, incentives should be provided to new firms’ entries and support for efficient companies, especially for young firms showing growth potential. Stimulation of growth in the number of high-productivity firms should go hand in hand with the creation of conditions for new entities’ fast development, expansion, and efficiency enhancement.
I. V. Beresinets, A. E. Ivanov
Published: 7 September 2021
Abstract:
The paper applies a typology of agency models of corruption, based on the conformity of principal and agent’s preferences to the “ideal” preferences of society. The proposed approach has allowed to theoretically substantiate the existence of new models of corrupt behavior, quasi- and totalitarian corruption, and subsequently to reveal cases of such agents’ behavior in the public procurement practice. In conditions of inefficient regulation, developed by the mala fide principal, bona fide agents in an effort to best meet the needs of society may violate certain provisions of regulatory legal acts or regulatory policy principles (quasi-corruption) whilst the mala fide agents do the same things for bribes (efficient corruption). On the other hand, in some cases the agents have to act in accordance with the inefficient regulation, being deprived of the possibility to violate it (totalitarian corruption). In the paper, the discussion of assumptions of different models, presented in the typology, including quasi- and totalitarian corruption, has been found in the academic literature. The paper examines the hypothesis that the proposition of Russian single-source procurement regulation which directly restricts annual small purchasing of contracting authorities provokes totalitarian corrupt behavior of buyers making them use electronic reverse auctions instead of single-source procurement to award small contracts.
D. P. Frolov
Published: 7 September 2021
Abstract:
Most of research on institutional transplantation is based on a set of general methodological principles and theoretical positions, which in total might be termed the “classical theory”. Despite its persuasiveness and wide currency (including outside the economic discourse), the classical theory of institutional transplantation has many built-in methodological limitations. It has a pronouncedly one-sided character, is based on reductionist approaches, and has problems with a systemic explanation of transplant processes in the modern economy. The article presents an interdisciplinary research program for the extended theory of institutional transplantation. The extended theory proposes to pay special attention to bottomup transplants, as well as the role of institution-based communities — heterogeneous networks of internal and external actors of transplanted institutions. Adaptation of a transplanted institution to the new environment is viewed more as an active transformation of the environment by actors (institutional niche construction). The deviations from foreign prototypes arising in transplanted institutions are interpreted as adaptive refunctionalizations rather than transplant failures. Special emphasis is placed on the interactive communication field in which transplanted institutions develop. As a result of transplantation, it is proposed to consider not the dichotomy of successful adaptation and rejection of a new institution, but the emergence of institutional assemblage — a complex system of borrowed and local institutions based on irreducible institutional logics.
D. P. Kolesnik, A. A. Pestova, M. E. Mamonov
Published: 7 September 2021
Abstract:
В работе проводится сравнительный анализ реакции различных групп потребителей на шоки предложения банковского кредитования. В качестве параметров гетерогенности потребителей рассматриваются различия в форме владения жильем (владельцы жилья с ипотекой и без ипотеки и арендаторы) и в виде кредита (домохозяйства с крупным долгом (ипотекой, автокредитом), домохозяйства с умеренным (потребительским) кредитом и без кредитов). Для эмпирического анализа используются данные лонгитюдного панельного обследования домохозяйств RLMS-HSE НИУ ВШЭ за период с 2006 по 2019 год, охватывающем два эпизода кредитного кризиса и пост-кризисного восстановления. Шоки предложения банковского кредитования оцениваются при помощи стандартной модели структурной векторной авторегрессии (SVAR), в которой также идентифицируются шоки совокупного спроса и предложения и шоки монетарной политики. Наши результаты показывают, что при положительном шоке предложения банковского кредитования, эквивалентном сокращению процентной ставки по кредитам на 0,5 п.п., домохозяйства с ипотекой увеличивают свое потребление на 2,1–2,5% больше, чем владельцы жилья без ипотеки. Обнаруженный эффект существенен, поскольку средние годовые темпы прироста потребления домашних хозяйств с ипотекой в нашей выборке составляют 3,8%. Наши результаты указывают на то, что макропруденциальная политика Банка России, в которой инструментом выступают контрциклические буферы капитала (Базель-III), может быть весьма эффективной в сглаживании потребления домашних хозяйств с задолженностью по ипотеке.
S. M. Drobyshevsky, P. V. Trunin, Е. В. Синельникова-Мурылева, N. V. Makeeva, A. M. Grebenkina
Published: 7 September 2021
Abstract:
В работе оценивается величина краткосрочной реальной нейтральной ставки процента в России после перехода к режиму инфляционного таргетирования. Представлен обзор теоретически обоснованных факторов, который демонстрирует различие кратко- и долгосрочной реальной нейтральной ставки процента. Анализ оценок последней для разных стран показывает, что ее снижение в развитых и развивающихся странах обусловлено различными факторами. Проведен сравнительный анализ преимуществ и недостатков основных подходов к оценке величины реальной нейтральной ставки процента — с применением показателей финансового рынка, статистических методов и многоуровневых теоретических моделей. На основании многомерной модели ненаблюдаемых компонент для российской экономики сделан вывод о снижении краткосрочной реальной нейтральной ставки процента с 5 до 1% в 2016—2020 гг., а также о нейтральности денежно-кредитной политики в этот период.
Published: 7 September 2021
Abstract:
В истории развития экономической теории, начиная с XV в., меркантилизм сменился классической теорией, а неомеркантилизм потеснила неоклассика. Современную форму меркантилизма англоязычные исследователи назвали новым неомеркантилизмом. Анализируются причины изменения экономической политики в современных англосаксонских странах, когда на смену процессу глобализации пришел на четыре года экономический национализм с торговыми войнами, заградительными пошлинами, разрывом международных соглашений. Эта трансформация наиболее ярко проявилась после оглашения результатов голосования англичан по Брекзиту и американцев на президентских выборах 2016 г. Сделан вывод о том, что попытка смены господствующей экономической парадигмы в США при президенте Д. Трампе выглядит вполне закономерно и представляет реальную угрозу сложившемуся мировому экономическому порядку.
O. N. Semiturkin, A. A. Shevelev, M. I. Kvaktun
Published: 7 September 2021
Abstract:
В статье анализируются факторы отклонения региональных темпов роста цен от среднероссийских и даются оценки структурных уровней инфляции в российских регионах, которые могут достигаться при поддержании Банком России инфляции на уровне 4%. Оценка структурных уровней региональной инфляции проведена с использованием группировок регионов по степени мобильности рабочей силы, транспортной доступности, отраслевой специфике экономики, доле социальных трансфертов в доходах населения и принадлежности региона к федеральному округу. Наибольшую значимость показали такие факторы неоднородности региональной инфляции, как объем кредитования физических лиц, уровень жесткости цен, инфляционные ожидания и номинальный эффективный курс рубля. Кроме того, для каждого российского региона была дана оценка мобильности рабочей силы через коэффициент Оукена. Сделан вывод, что эффект Балассы-Самуэльсона в долгосрочном периоде является значимым фактором неоднородности инфляции только в регионах с высокой мобильностью рабочей силы. Результаты оценки структурных уровней региональной инфляции могут учитываться при разработке денежно-кредитной политики и при проведении информационной политики Банка России.
N. N. Kunitsyna, E. I. Dyudikova
Published: 7 September 2021
Abstract:
Криптовалюта как экономический нарратив, с одной стороны, инновационна и интересна обществу, поскольку в полной мере отвечает требованиям периода цифровизации, с другой — ее революционный характер вызывает вопросы у регулирующих органов ввиду необходимости полномасштабной перестройки устоявшегося экономического уклада. Популяризация нерегулируемого общественного феномена требует ответной реакции от государственных структур. Эти тенденции обусловили целесообразность исследования институциональных перемен в связи с внедрением цифрового рубля и выработки рекомендаций по легитимизации национальной валюты в цифровой форме. Сделан вывод, что действия мегарегулятора и органов власти ориентированы не на создание цифровой экономики путем организации единого цифрового пространства, реализация которого возможна только на основе унифицированной многофункциональной цифровой платформы, а на сохранение традиционной инфраструктуры. Нецелесообразными и неоправданными представляются попытки подменить цифровой формат взаимодействия электронным с криптографическими способами защиты, а также интегрировать инновационную технологическую составляющую криптовалют путем надстройки к функционирующей системе, не позволяющей реализовать заложенный в ней потенциал и создать новую технологическую реальность.
R. I. Kapeliushnikov
Published: 7 August 2021
Abstract:
The paper presents a wide set of estimates for returns to education in Russia, introducing a number of new sources of microdata that previosly remained unused by both Russian and foreign researchers. Until now virtually all available estimates for Russia were based on data from a single source — The Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey — Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE). According to these data, since the mid-2000s returns to education rapidly declined and have dropped to abnormally low levels. The paper tests the thesis of ultra-low economic value of Russian education using data from three alternative representative surveys regularly conducted by Rosstat. The analysis shows that currently returns to education in Russia reach 12—13%, which is much higher than the standard RLMS estimates. University-type tertiary education almost doubles earnings (its premium approaches to 100%), and even short-cycle tertiary education provides a premium of about 20—30%. Alternative sources also indicate that over the past 15 years, returns to education in Russia remained stable and, therefore, no decreasing trend in the economic value of education has been observed. This makes it possible to reject the currently popular thesis about abnormally low returns to education in Russia.
В. Е. Гимпельсон, D. I. Zinchenko
Published: 7 August 2021
Abstract:
In this study, we raise a simple question: do STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) education and employment provide a monetary return to professionals with this specialization and holding STEM jobs? If yes, what is the premium across ages and cohorts? We compare wages of professionals with the STEM education and without it, holding STEM jobs and those working in alternative positions, and with various combinations of education and jobs. We estimate premiums for the whole sample as well as for different age groups and cohorts. For this, we use various large data sets with variables for college majors and occupational positions. The main conclusion is that the STEM specialization brings no significant benefits compared to non-STEM majors and jobs. The premium does not emerge over experience or age; moreover, older groups engaged in STEM-related work tend to experience a wage penalty. As we move from younger to older age cohorts, the wage growth declines which means that wages for younger age cohorts catch up and take over the older ones, even if they were initially lower. These results are reproduced on all available datasets.
, I. V. Prostakov, D. R. Belousov, L. M. Grigoryev,
Published: 7 August 2021
Abstract:
The crisis that the global economy faced in 2020 has no historical counterparts. However, this does not mean that the experience of overcoming previous economic cataclysms in the current situation is useless. History shows that a crisis can become a long stop on the path of economic development of a country or, on the contrary, give an impetus to its acceleration. Within the framework of the XXII April international academic conference of HSE University and Sberbank (Moscow, April 13—30, 2021), a roundtable was held on lessons in the field of economic, social, domestic, technological policy that can be learned from the crises of the past and are useful in the context of recovering from the current recession. The roundtable became a part of the project “The experience of overcoming the crises of the last century and its lessons for the present”, implemented by the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs of HSE University in 2020—2021. Its participants were asked the following questions: which crises over the past century most resemble the current economic crisis; what lessons in the field of economic, social, domestic policy, institutional development can be learned from the crises of the past to overcome the current economic situation; can the crisis give the country an opportunity to move to a higher level of development?
E. S. Andronova, A. I. Rey, G. R. Akzhigitova
Published: 7 August 2021
Abstract:
This paper explores firm survival in Russian retail industry in cases of digital multi-sided platforms penetration such as aggregator Yandex.Market, marketplace Wildberries, electronic store Ozon and classified-ad service Avito. The panel data set of 130 thousand firms was analyzed using two methods: non-parametric Kaplan—Meier estimator and semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model with time dependent covariates. Kaplan—Meier estimator calculates the survival function for censored data. Cox proportional hazards model examines the effect of platform penetration on hazard rates of differently sized firms in various industry spheres. Platforms-aggregators Yandex.Market and Wildberries have a strong positive impact on firm survival while platformsdisruptors Ozon and Avito increase likelihood of firm failure. The main results of platform influence in various industry spheres are as follows: the aggregator of price offers has a more positive impact on segments with high information asymmetry; and firms specialized on Wildberries key product categories enjoy lower hazard ratios of bankruptcy or liquidation. These hypotheses are not supported for Ozon and Avito platforms.
K. N. Makshanchikov
Published: 7 August 2021
Abstract:
The article presents a classification of approaches to the analysis of sports activities at the individual level. Economists are interested in studying sports because of the growing importance of the sport industry in the economy. In this regard, it becomes an urgent task to identify motivations that encourage people to engage in sports. The main purpose of the paper is to discuss the differences in approaches to the study of sports activity of individuals depending on the dominant motives. The author considers the main motives for sports, such as professional activities, leisure, and investments in human capital. The article systematizes approaches to the analysis of people’s sports activities and offers a classification of approaches. The article discusses the relationship between motives and the problem of empirical assessment of individuals’ decision-making about sports from an economist’s point of view.
K. V. Rozhkova, S. Y. Roshchin, ,
Published: 7 August 2021
Abstract:
Though master’s programmes are rapidly gaining attention from students, evidence concerning the labor market returns to master’s degree remains scarce. There is a widespread opinion that Russian employers can barely distinguish between graduates with bachelor’s and master’s degree making it unreasonable to pursue a graduate degree. This paper contradicts this opinion. Based on a unique administrative dataset about employment of Russian HEI graduates in 2020, this study reveals a significantly positive association between master’s degree acquisition and labour market outcomes one year after graduation. Master’s degree increases probability of employment by 3—8% in male sample and by 10—16% in female sample, respectively. Moreover, graduate degree is associated with a wage premium of 5—21% for females and 2—11% for males. Despite a short period of time passed after the Bologna reform, Russian labour market encourages having a graduate degree, though the size of the premium varies drastically between fields of study and types of university.
V. M. Polterovich
Published: 12 July 2021
Abstract:
We introduce the concept of collaborative hierarchy, a mechanism of collaboration which combines hierarchical and peer-to-peer interactions. In a collaborative hierarchy, a set of participants informatively “subordinate” to the same coordinator forms a peer-to-peer network producing consensual decisions. The advantages of such mechanisms over peer-to-peer mechanisms are noted. The problem of stability of collaborative hierarchies is investigated. In this case it means that they are protected from turning into power hierarchies based on violence. Stability requires high levels of human capital and civic culture. It is achieved through a number of formal organizational principles, such as the selection of coordinators by the level of collaborativity and their regular turnover. Of particular importance for stability is the requirement of reaching consensus. It is demonstrated that a number of Western countries are trying to overcome the crisis of the welfare state by introducing economic reforms providing for the formation of collaborative hierarchies. Our analysis shows that forming of governance hierarchies is compatible with the tendency of crowding out mechanisms of competition and power by mechanisms of collaboration, demonstrated by the philosophy of collaboration. The significance of the findings for Russia is discussed.
B. M. Cheskidov
Published: 12 July 2021
Abstract:
The paper considers the modern monetary economic theory (MMT) from the point of view of the approaches to overcome the current economic crisis by recourse to fiscal and monetary tools. It is shown that its proposals are aimed at overcoming the crisis of the U.S. economy through an additional inflow of investment resources from other states with a simultaneous increase in social stability within the country with the support of a quantitative easing race. It also concludes that the level of taxation in developed states reaches the limit beyond which the economic activity is discouraged. The negative consequences for economic subjects of reducing the possibility of maneuvering between national jurisdictions for tax optimization, and the importance of this process for the preservation of U.S. leadership are demonstrated.
V. V. Golikova, B. V. Kuznetsov
Published: 12 July 2021
Abstract:
The paper utilizes survey data of 2014 and 2018 for the analysis of import as one of the transmission channels of external shocks on the behavior of Russian industrial enterprises. The study aims to reveal strategies of importing under sanctions’ regime and evaluate the potential of import substitution. It demonstrates sustainability of business strategies with regard to importing and maintaining trends of high dependence on import equipment for technological modernization and competitiveness of products. The current scale of import substitution is modest, there is a lack of substantial transformation of geography of importing except radically diminished share of importers from Ukraine. Bi-probit econometric estimations that take into consideration firm’ simultaneous involvement in importing of interim products and equipment demonstrate that import of the former is critically important for the firms exporting to Europe, while the latter is associated with exporting to the members of the Customs’ Union and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
E. V. Bessonova, S. V. Popova, N. A. Turdyeva, A. N. Tsvetkova
Published: 12 July 2021
Abstract:
The access to credits for companies with high productivity is an important factor for the economic recovery after the shock. In this paper, we analyze changes in banks’ lending to Russian companies’ in 2020. Our analysis shows that in 2020 the volume of new ruble credits increased relative to the level of the previous year. At the same time, there were changes in loans’ structure, which are explained by the effect of government lending support programs that began in May—June 2020. This fact indicates that a large number of firms made use of these programs last year, partially or fully covering temporary liquidity needs in the period of significant decrease in demand and revenue. Outside of the government support programs, the structure of market lending did not change significantly in 2020 compared to 2019. Banks prefer to lend to more productive companies: we see that the volume of credits to high productive firms was at the same level as in 2019. This means that efficient firms that should be drivers of economic recovery did not have problems with access to credit in 2020.
A. N. Shokhin, Н. В. Акиндинова, V. Y. Astrov, E. T. Gurvich, O. A. Zamulin, A. N. Klepach, , N. V. Orlova
Published: 12 July 2021
Abstract:
The roundtable participants assessed the effects of the pandemic and analyzed its consequences, the impact on economic and social development. The main attention in the discussion was paid to the pace of economic recovery, anti-crisis mechanisms to support the economy in 2020, which can become systemic, aimed at stimulating investment activity, and suggest new approaches to solving social problems. The participants in the discussion proposed considering the possibility of strengthening the countercyclical nature of the fiscal rule, taking into account not only oil prices, but also other factors of economic activity. It was noted that investments in many sectors have increased, but mainly due to budgetary sources, the role of budgetary policy has also increased. During the pandemic, the role of the state has changed: it has become not only a source of funds, but also a guarantor of investments and social payments. However, the roundtable participants noted that this new role of the state should not be ensured by raising taxes.
, , I. A. Sokolov
Published: 12 July 2021
Abstract:
Using the Heckman procedure with the data of the European Investment Bank on investment projects implemented on the principles of PPP, the paper identifies factors that are significant for the development of PPP. In particular, the use of PPP turned out to be most sensitive to the maturity of economic development, as well as to the state’s budgetary constraints, which do not allow building all the necessary infrastructure for providing public goods at the expense of the budget. At the same time, there has been found no statistically stable relationship between the institutional environment and the implementation of PPP projects, which may be so due to the quality of the sample — for developing countries, the importance of institutional environment factors, as well as macroeconomic stability, would most likely be more obvious.
Published: 12 July 2021
Abstract:
The article is devoted to the analysis of modern ideas about the quality of institutions concept, and the development on this basis of its generalized and operational understanding. The interpretation of the quality of the institution as its legitimacy from the point of view of stakeholders of the institution’s performance is grounded. Starting from the understanding of the object or process legitimacy as a recognition of its right to exist, an approximate question is proposed for conducting sociological surveys to assess the quality of institutions. In the final section of the article, the evolutionary definition of the concept of quality is proposed, and it is shown that the identification of the institutions quality with their legitimacy is fully consistent with this definition.
, K. A. Ionkina
Published: 12 July 2021
Abstract:
The paper defines the features of the collective dominance institute in Russia as well as the relation between collective dominance and oligopoly in the spheres of law and economic theory. The article evaluates the grounds and consequences of the collective dominance legal norm application; it suggests an approach to examining the relation between effects and expected results of this legal norm application and outlines the potential ways to harmonize the best international practices of the collective dominance norm application with the existing economic standards of product market analysis for the purpose of competition law enforcement. Results of the oligopoly theory and the Russian version of collective dominance institution key elements comparison show: the collective dominance institution concept is inadequately applied to identify individual abuse of dominant position due to possible law enforcement errors. The Russian version of collective dominance institution reflects one fundamental tendency intrinsic to Russian antitrust: examined more closely, law enforcement, which is de jure aimed at protecting competition, appears to be economic regulation, which de facto can lead to competition restriction. One of the possible structural alternatives for the collective dominance institution reforming is based on presumption of the need to analyze the joint impact exerted by a group of undertakings on the market.
Published: 12 July 2021
Abstract:
The specifics of the inflation targeting policy pursued by the Bank of Russia lead to the emergence of proposals to empower it with aims, goals or targets to promote economic growth. In the study, the feasibility of such proposals is considered from the point of view of targeting policy properties, arguments in favor of using growth indicators, the possibility of planning with multiple goal-setting conditions, and the impact on expectations. It has been established that the direct empowerment of growth targeting will only lead to the Bank’s claim that there is no opportunity to increase the growth rate. The imposition of the target value can be seen as the erosion of the independence of the Bank. The failure to coordinate goals (if they are set autonomously by the fiscal and monetary policy authorities) will lead to inefficiency. Planning in the context of multiple goals will return the Bank to a situation of dynamic inefficiency, evaporating the low inflationary expectations. The position of the Bank of Russia regarding assessments of potential economic growth and the ability to influence it needs much more detailed presentation than is currently declared in official documents.
, Vladislav Y. Ivakin
Russian Journal of Economics, Volume 7, pp 119-136; https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.7.51709

Abstract:
This paper studies the influence of the service sector (joint-stock commercial banks and railways) on the economic development of agricultural regions within the Russian empire in the second half of the 19th century, using the case of the Central Black Earth region. The study compares yield data for major crops, railroad transportation of grain and flour, and the banking services to agriculture producers and traders. Statistical analysis of this data disproves the prevailing historical economic viewpoint which claims that agricultural exports were not accompanied by bank support, because it did not take into account a rather high level of infrastructure around the Riga–Oryol railway trunk, which was formed back in the 1870s. The exports in this region consisted of the prior year’s harvest, which indicated a rather developed system of crop storage and accompanying banking services. The study reveals a dramatic growth in the services sector throughout the Central Black Earth region during the 1890s. In previous decades, this system could not be extended to the entire region due to a long history of unfavorable conditions in the agricultural and banking sectors. Thus, banking services in Russia at the end of the 19th century were provided to not just industrial and stock markets customers. In those regions dominated by agriculture, services infrastructure had been oriented towards this sector.
Irina V. Shilnikova
Russian Journal of Economics, Volume 7, pp 160-184; https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.7.51697

Abstract:
Despite the Soviet government’s declarative efforts to engage foreign capital in rebuilding the economy during the 1920s, most concessions did not last long and were liquidated before the respective contracts expired. This article considers the conditions and key outcomes of concession enterprises, as well as the reasons and mechanisms for their premature liquidation, using the textile industry as an example. The main focus is on the indicators and reasons for the high profitability of these enterprises, lending issues and Soviet methods for limiting the growth of foreign concession operator profits.
Vadim M. Rynkov
Russian Journal of Economics, Volume 7, pp 137-159; https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.7.56634

Abstract:
This article uses archival documents and periodical publications to analyze the impact of the Civil War on the labor market in the regions of Eastern Russia. It considers key labor market institutions such as legislation, infrastructure (labor exchanges, unemployment funds, and professional and entrepreneurship organizations), and labor contracts. It has been established that there was continuity in the regulatory framework and labor market management tools between the Provisional Government and the anti-Bolshevik governments. The study shows the challenges and shortcomings of managing hiring and dismissal processes by soft regulatory methods given the deep economic crisis. The labor supply was backed by extensive cohorts of prisoners of war, refugees, and foreign workers, which contributed to a drop in labor rates. The government sought to stabilize the situation by reinforcing transactional barriers to reduce employment. The labor market in Eastern Russia was subjected to regionalization and localization.
Carol S. Leonard, Zafar Nazarov, , Maria A. Karpenko, Roman B. Konchakov
Russian Journal of Economics, Volume 7, pp 93-104; https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.7.56600

Abstract:
This paper shows that railroad building in Russia, as in Europe and the US in the nineteenth century, improved the value of land, a classic benefit of transportation investment in largely agrarian countries. From a database constructed for this paper, we use cross-sectional data for the fifty European Russian regions to show the association of the length of the railroad (measured in 1894), land prices (measured in 1900) and annual growth of land prices (in rubles) for 1885–1910.
R. R. Akhmetov, M. E. Mamonov, V. A. Pankova
Published: 10 June 2021
Abstract:
This review examines the impact of the global financial cycle on small open economies and compares the effectiveness of various monetary and macroprudential policies in the presence of global financial cycle. First, we provide a classification of the channels through which the monetary policy of the world financial regulators (US Federal Reserve, ECB), which largely determines the global financial cycle, is transmitted to small open economies: the channel for interest rates differential, the channel for the activities of global financial institutions, and the channel for commodity prices. Second, by analyzing the arguments of supporters and critics of the monetary policy trilemma, we show how the literature comes to the conclusion that inflation targeting policy is still one of the most optimal solutions for achieving the goals of price and macroeconomic stability but fails to ensure financial stability. The latter requires active coordination with macroprudential policy measures. These conclusions are supported by the analysis of case studies of specific countries (Russia, New Zealand, Brazil, Turkey, etc.), which attempted to mitigate negative consequences of the 2007—2009 global financial crisis.
Yu. V. Simachev,
Published: 10 June 2021
Abstract:
The paper assesses the influence of science–business cooperation on the activity of firms, analyzes the factors of interaction of Russian companies with academic organizations and universities in the research sphere, identifies barriers to the development of cooperation between business and science. It has been established that companies whose source of innovation was external R&D were more likely to grow over the past 5 years and to create new products. However, a significant effect of the impact of cooperation with domestic research organizations was found only for the dynamics of exports. It is shown that cooperation with domestic science is more typical for high-tech industries and large Russian businesses. The factor inducing firms to outsource research is a significant level of competition. The high cost of external research services and their insufficient quality hinder the development of scientific and production cooperation. One can point to such a barrier as low interest of research organizations in the volume of orders that firms can offer. This is caused by weak institutional change in the Russian science, preservation of its orientation at the state and major players, which significantly limits the opportunities for institutional interaction of small innovative firms with science. It has been shown that the state quite effectively “pushes” companies to interact with research organizations and universities, but the results of such interaction are often unsatisfactory for firms.
V. A. Bannikova, A. A. Pestova
Published: 10 June 2021
Abstract:
Commonly used in monetary VARs identification schemes yield to a highfrequency approach as they tend to raise different empirical puzzles reported in the literature. However, financial markets in some open economies are not sufficiently liquid to provide minute bars data on interest rate financial instruments. This paper fills this gap employing a new series of high-frequency monetary policy surprises with USD/RUB currency futures and spot instruments. We find that a monetary tightening is contractionary without price puzzle and other paradoxes about financial variables. This result is robust for the period 2010—2019 apart from the crisis of 2014—2015 when the free floated ruble was devalued due to the sharp decline in oil prices. We also decompose surprises on monetary policy shocks — changes in the expected interest rate, and an information component — the information simultaneously conveyed by the central bank like an assessment of the economic outlook. We find that the former one significantly affects monetary policy surprises that does not confirm a hypothesis about substantial impact of non-monetary news on the external instrument.
Ph. S. Kartaev, V. G. Tubdenov
Published: 10 June 2021
Abstract:
The work is devoted to the study of the influence of changes in the transparencyof monetary policy on the effect of exchange rate pass-through in consumer prices. Based on econometric modeling of cross-country panel data, it is shown that an increase in the transparency of communication between the central bank and the population leads to a decrease in the elasticity of domestic prices with respect to the exchange rate in countries that target inflation and adhere to other monetary policy regimes. The effect is observed for both developed and developing economies; it is stronger in the second case. The obtained result can be interpreted as an argument in favor of the advisability of the Bank of Russia transition from a verbal description of its future actions to the publication of a quantitative forecast of the interest rate trajectory.
O. A. Demidova, E. E. Karnaukhova, D. A. Korshunov, A. A. Myasnikov, S. F. Seregina
Published: 10 June 2021
Abstract:
We analyze the heterogeneous influence that monetary policy has on the growth rates of real personal income in 79 Russian regions over the period from 2Q2015 to 4Q2019, taking into account some of the channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism and spatial effects. The analysis was performed on the basis of panel data and a spatial autoregressive model. Besides that, we have calculated individual direct effects of changes of the interest rate for each region. Our results confirm the existence of a negative relationship between changes in the interest rate and growth rates of real personal income. This relationship is heterogeneous for different regions. Among the significant factors affecting the heterogeneity of the influence of monetary policy are the industrial structure and concentration of small businesses in regional economies. We have also found significant positive spatial effects of neighboring regions on each other. Our results generally coincide with those received in analyses of the effects of monetary policy in other countries.
M. V. Podshivalova, И. С. Пылаева, S. K. Almrshed
Published: 10 June 2021
Abstract:
InnoThe article examines the specifics of innovative activity of Russian drug manufacturers, which in the context of a COVID-19 pandemic become a matter of national security. The research is based on panel data: out of a total of 1,816 enterprises in the industry, a sample of 345 innovatively active enterprises is formed with a time series of data 20 years long. The sample is diversified by the scale of enterprise activity into 4 groups: micro enterprises, small, medium, and large enterprises. These types of enterprises are compared both in absolute terms — size of investments in intangible assets, age, and in relative ones — frequency of investments in innovations, coefficient of autonomy, profitability of sales and assets, share of intangible assets in revenue and assets. The analysis was supplemented by enterprises not included in the sample to identify the effectiveness of innovation in the industry. The result is the innovative profile of industrial enterprises in the context of the scale of their activities. The conclusion is drawn about the specifics of the domestic pharmaceutical industry innovation activity, which generally coincides with the established distribution of roles in the global pharmaceutical industry, when large enterprises are leaders in the innovations development and implementation. Russian large companies also tend to use micro enterprises to implement risky projects. The authors conclude that in Russia, the foundations have been formed for transition to a new model of pharmaceutical industry innovative development. This model is based on cooperation of small and large businesses.
Published: 14 May 2021
Abstract:
На основе экспертных интервью исследуются факторы, ограничивающие развитие исламских финансов в России, конкурентоспособность и целевая аудитория, а также будущее и модель распространения исламских финансов в российской экономике. Интервью проводились с руководителями банков, фондов, финансовых и консалтинговых компаний. Акцент сделан на том, как участники и организаторы российского рынка понимают феномен исламских финансов. Показано, что исламские финансовые услуги в России востребованы и конкурентоспособны. Однако для расширения масштабов этого бизнеса необходим дополнительный капитал (ликвидность), доступ к которому может быть обеспечен за счет привлечения крупного стратегического инвестора (принципала) в лице банка или финансово-промышленной группы.
E. Y. Vinokurov, A. S. Levenkov
Published: 14 May 2021
Abstract:
In the global financial architecture, the functions of anti-crisis support and macroeconomic stabilization are performed by the institutions of the global financial safety net (GFSN). The volume of available financing within the framework of GFNS has grown 10 times over the past decade and reached the equivalent of 4% of world GDP. The literature’s standard understanding of a system of national reserves, swap agreements, regional financial mechanisms, and the IMF requires enlargement. The article proposes the concept of an enlarged global financial safety net, namely by including two new elements — multilateral development banks and bilateral financial support. The manifestations of this phenomenon in many regions of the world are shown in the activities of the largest international development banks and at the level of macroeconomic stabilization financing by individual donor countries, including during the current COVID crisis.
Т. Д. Polidi, A. Y. Gershovich
Published: 14 May 2021
Abstract:
The article presents the results of an operational assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the change in the gross urban product (GUP) in 17 metropolitan areas of Russia with a population of more than 1 million people in 2020. The goal of the authors was to try to answer the most actual questions nowadays (early 2021): how deep was the fall of the largest agglomerations economies in Russia and abroad; did the corona crisis have a more negative impact on the largest metropolitan areas then on the rest of the economy? In order to answer these questions, two main tasks were: 1) to assess GUP in 17 largest metropolitan areas of Russia; 2) to consider foreign estimates of the GUP in 2020. For foreign comparisons, the authors use the first published data on changes in GDP and gross urban/regional product in the United States, Canada and Australia. The assessment of GUP in this work is carried out through the assessment of the component of employee compensation and then the transition to the GUP indicator on the assumption that such a ratio of compensation of employees to GDP in a city equals the average of the said ratios for the 17 metropolitan areas. The assessment showed that the real GDP growth rates in 2020 were negative not in all metropolitan areas, and in most of them economic losses turned out to be less than those of the Russian economy as a whole.
Published: 14 May 2021
Abstract:
The article deals with the notion of the global financial cycle proposed by H. Rey and her co-authors. The driving forces of the global financial cycle are discussed along with the findings of the empirical papers testing this concept. It is shown that recognizing US monetary policy shocks as a major driver of the global financial cycle does not undermine the validity of the well-known “trilemma”: using the floating exchange rate regime still partly cushions developing and emerging market economies from external shocks. Its effect can be reinforced if macroprudential policy measures or partial restrictions on capital mobility are also applied. The review concludes by discussing possible extensions to the concept of global financial cycle.
, A. A. Skrobotov
Published: 14 May 2021
Abstract:
The paper considers a simple aggregated consumption function for Russian economy in which households consume a constant fraction of a permanent income. The value of this fraction is estimated by households within the framework of the adaptive expectations process based on the dynamics of GDP at constant consumption prices. Testing for a structural break at an unknown date in the parameter of the propensity to consume is performed. The results of econometric estimation, taking into account the presence of an endogeneity in the regression equation, demonstrate that after 2014 there was a structural break, as a result of which the parameter of the propensity to consume of permanent GDP decreased by 6.5—9.2%.
Published: 14 May 2021
Abstract:
The article attempts to formulate the main characteristics of the concept of sustainable finance and determine its place among other concepts. Its certain autonomy from the concept of sustainable development is emphasized. Indicators are presented that demonstrate the outstripping growth of sustainable finance in the modern world, and assumptions about the reasons for this trend. The problem of the adequacy of rating assessments of corporate adherence to ESG principles is briefly touched upon, which turned out to be the weak point of the concept of sustainable finance. The current state of the concept of sustainable finance in Russia is assessed, the main obstacles to its implementation and feasibility are determined. Proposals are formulated for public policy measures that can stimulate the formation of domestic responsible investors in Russia, as well as other measures that will contribute to the implementation of the concept of sustainable finance.
A. R. Nartikoev,
Published: 14 May 2021
Abstract:
In order to study the structure of society, sociologists usually distinguish several homogeneous social groups, or classes. The most common division consists of three groups: upper, middle and lower classes. Such a partition is traditionally based on a subjective (exogenous) criteria adopted by a particular researcher. In this paper, the distribution of households in Russian federal districts is modeled as a mixture of three lognormal distributions. The mixing proportions (probabilities) of the mixture components and the corresponding distribution parameters are modeled as functions of the individual characteristics of households. The result is an endogenous decomposition of household sample into three clusters (lower, middle, upper). This classification allows analyzing the difference between regions and the patterns of intergroup dynamics in the period 2014—2018. The approach used in this work has demonstrated great flexibility in analyzing the distribution of income, the dynamics of this distribution over time, as well as a migration between relatively homogeneous clusters. The use of mixture density function with endogenously determined probabilities allows for precise detection of the effects of the income heterogeneity determinants within each cluster.
S. A. Perekhod
Published: 14 May 2021
Abstract:
The article examines the possible consequences of the new “Great Lockdown” crisis and their impact on the stability of the corporate sector in terms of external obligations. The author examines the trends in the dynamics of external debt and formulates the main threats to macroeconomic stability (sanctions, world recession, low oil prices), describes the scenario of shock propagation and its impact on companies’ solvency. Based on a sample for the period from 2006Q1 to 2020Q1 (57 observations) using the least squares method, three theoretical regression models (for the entire period, shock and “quiet” quarters) were constructed to explain the change in the level of debt burden of the corporate sector from a number of macroeconomic variables: capital outflow, foreign assets, oil prices, LIBOR rates, credit bond spread, etc. The results obtained can be used in the implementation of debt and prudential policies.
, , K. N. Tsagan-Mandzhieva
Published: 14 May 2021
Abstract:
Рассматриваются критерии выбора получателей государственной поддержки для достижения налоговой справедливости в условиях коронакризиса. Сопоставлены состояние экономического и человеческого потенциала и бюджетной устойчивости субъектов Российской Федерации до кризиса и уровень развития предпринимательской активности населения в регионах. Представлен подробный обзор мер налоговой поддержки физических лиц, относящихся к субъектам малого предпринимательства или самозанятым, с момента начала пандемии в России и за рубежом. Обосновано, что критерием справедливого выбора получателей государственной налоговой поддержки должна выступать налоговая законопослушность. Результаты исследования могут использоваться органами власти при совершенствовании налоговой политики в субъектах Российской Федерации, направленной на нивелирование негативных последствий коронакризиса.
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