(searched for: doi:10.31481/*)
Published: 8 June 2019
Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal pp 42-53; doi:10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.05
Abstract: Relevance of the paper consists in the need of ability to predict the water resources state of small and medium-sized rivers of the North-Western Black Sea Region in the 21st century in order to justify the strategy of Odesa Region's economy development. The water bodies of the studied territory include Kuyalnitskyi Liman with its unique balneological properties used for health improvement purposes since the end of the 19th century. Global warming and construction of numerous artificial reservoirs across the catchments of the liman's rivers resulted in its shallowing since the 90s of the last century. Forecasts for possible inflow of fresh water from the rivers to the liman in the near future have a great importance for assessing the prospects of its natural resources protection and preservation. The aim of the paper is to determine a possible state of water resources of the rivers belonging to the Kuyalnitskyi Liman catchment over the period of 2021-2050 based on imitational mathematical modelling with the climate-runoff model taken as a template and using meteorological data of 14 models of the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Estimations of zonal (climatic) annual runoff were provided for six meteorological stations located across the Kuyalnitskyi Liman catchment and adjacent territories. Each of the studied models has the water resources, heat and moisture resources estimations averaged over the target territory. It is shown that, compared to the last century's data, water resources changes will range from -82.6 % (model CLMcom3) to + 75.4 % (model MPI-CSC2). An average statistical model which is the result of averaging all the studied models was taken for further calculations. It was established that the best harmonization of estimated and actual tendencies of runoff formation climatic factors changes is observed when the average statistical model is taken. According to this model, over the period of 2021-2050 the Kuyalnitskyi Liman catchment area will see a heat resources expected increase by + 12.3 % with a slight (-1.80 %) humidification resources decrease. This will lead to reduction of territory's water resources by 25.5 %. The transfer of some watercourses feeding the liman to natural annual river runoff made it possible to determine that, according to the RCP4.5 scenario, over the period of 2021-2050 the average long-term inflow of fresh water from the Velykyi Kuyalnik River will constitute 16.5 million m3 and the inflow from other watercourses – 1.3 million m3.
Published: 8 June 2019
Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal pp 14-24; doi:10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.02
Abstract: Improving the quality of hydrometeorological products and services for different categories of end users today is the most important task of the Hydrometeorological Service of Ukraine. Implementation of these measures involves a widespread use of modern technologies of hydrometeorological measurements as well as information and computing technologies such as Internet of Things, Big Data, Cloud Computing. The paper studies the current state and prospects of Internet of Things (IoT) application in hydrometeorological activities, particularly, in the work of hydrometeorological organizations of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, in order to improve the quality of hydrometeorological products and services. Emergence of IoT became a new step in Internet and Web technologies use and ensured transition from static network to dynamic array of devices of all types and sizes employing electronics, software, sensors and network connectivity. It offers recommendations for intensifying the efforts aimed at implementation of this promising information technology into routine instrumental measurements, data collection and processing, as well as delivery of services to users. The recommendations present solutions to a number of technological, organizational and legal problems. Transition to a new technology should be carried out in stages and in the course of sensors and devices improvement, increase of speed and a reliability of communication channels. The most optimum solution may include a program-target approach based on a comprehensive program of development of the Hydrometeorological Service for the period of up to 5 years. This approach will make it possible to consider development of information technologies in a close relation with development of other activities of the Hydrometeorological Service: technical re-equipment of observation networks, improvement of the Hydrometeorological Service management as a whole and with regard to its separate units; strengthening its material and technical base, personnel potential etc.
Published: 8 June 2019
Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal pp 69-83; doi:10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.07
Abstract: There is a range of hydrocarbon exploration and extraction industrial project activities taking place on the North West Shelf of the Australian Continent. The shelf is a diverse and important marine ecosystem, with a number of globally significant shallow coral reefs and marine protected areas, which are vital for survival of threatened and protected species. Some of the mentioned exploration and extraction activities, such as offshore drilling, may be permitted within few kilometres away from sensitive habitats extant near a project resource extraction area. The habitats may in some cases be presented by submerged shoal ecosystems of high biodiversity and thus high environmental/ecological value, due to the presence of either or both benthic biota and fish assemblages. As part of an environmental assessment program for the industrial activities, some of the offshore exploration operators examine the effects of drilling discharges on the marine ambience. This study describes such an assessment. For the assessment, a novel integrated marine monitoring approach was conceptually designed; the program was then executed in the field using bottom-mounted equipment and a remotely operated underwater vehicle with sensors mounted on it. This study focuses on assessing the wind conditions in the project area, sea level and current velocities, in situ water temperature, salinity, turbidity and acoustic echo intensity, over several stages of the drilling operations while the drilling cuttings and muds were discharged into the water column. The collected during the austral autumn months of April and May winds showed prevailing east-southeaserlies, which is aligned well with the general understanding of wind climatology of the area. Importantly, stronger than usual winds may have a defining impact on current speeds and directions, with the current speeds enhanced by such winds. On these occasions the water transporting a discharge material may pushed towards the sensitive habitat present in the area. Normally though the hydrodynamics in the project area are dominated by semi-diurnal tides. Both vertical current velocity and water temperature distributions indicated the presence of three layers within the water column over the project site. The vertical distribution of water salinity was rather homogenous throughout the entire water column. The monitored by an optical instrument turbidity and acoustic echo intensity from an ADCP (acoustic Doppler current profiler) showed that tracing discharge plumes with a remotely operated underwater vehicle is a viable technique, which could be implemented at other locations. Such independent parameters though need a thorough cross-calibration and inter-validation for the results to be fully understood.
Published: 8 June 2019
Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal pp 135-149; doi:10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.12
Abstract: Among all the natural resources available in Odesa Region vacationists prefer beaches and associated entertainments. Quality and general ecological condition of the beaches in addition to the potential and actual beach capacity are key factors for tourist flow to Odesa Region and its socio-economic development. In order to substantiate the recreational and tourist development of the territory an economic and logistic evaluation of its resource base should be carried out. This will make it possible to determine an input tourist flow which dictates the volumes of required tourist infrastructure and material and technical facilities. The purpose of this study is to evaluate recreational potential of Odesa Region’s beach zones. To achieve this, all main natural and anthropogenic factors determining the recreational potential of the coastal zone were analyzed. The study is also based on scientific researches in the field of recreational and tourist activities made by well-known experts, on the existing regulatory frameworks and results of the authors' own research works. For the first time, recreational capacity and logistic potential of Odesa Region’s beach zones were estimated. Based on this estimation multiple conclusions about the most promising areas for future development of the recreation sector were made. It was determined that favorable climatic conditions, considerable length of beaches and other natural and recreational resources allow us to speak about good prospects of the Odesa Region’s coastal zone for various forms of recreation including thalassotherapy. In fact, thalassotherapy opportunity (first of all, beach recreation) is a very important factor of attractiveness for vacationists visiting the Odesa Region’s coastal zone. According to our research, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, Tatarbunarskyi and Lymanskyi districts are the most promising ones for recreational development. The total capacity of the beaches here even exceeds the districts' own population. Conducted recreational zoning of the Odesa’s Black Sea coast established that, based on the natural recreational factors, out of 9 recreational microdistricts only 3 of them may be classified as favorable, with 5 being relatively favorable and 1 – completely unfavorable. But, from the perspective of sea water quality, some microdistricts (Luzanivskyi and Arkadiyskyi) do not meet sanitary standards during the period of intense precipitation. It was found that there is a need for expansion of beach areas as well as a need for regulation and redistribution of the recreational and tourist flow. In order to increase recreational attractiveness of Odesa Region, regional and city administrations should pay more attention to the ecological conditions of beach areas of the Black Sea coast. The obtained results may be used by the Department of Culture and Tourism of the Odesa Regional State Administration, divisions of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Ukraine in...
Published: 8 June 2019
Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal pp 25-33; doi:10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.03
Abstract: The methods of cluster and component analysis were applied to the existing factors that are associated with the characteristics of heat and moisture exchange at 700 hPa level before their inclusion in the model of regional climates imitation, in order to detect zones of active interaction in the atmosphere over the North Atlantic and determine the regions hosting the processes that cause a significant impact on formation of features of climatic responsive regimes in the Eastern Europe. Each node of a 2,5º2,5º grid covering the North Atlantic has the first three main components identified and they describe more than 80 % of the total dispersion of the interaction processes at 700 hPa level. Using the Universal Iterative Method of data clustering the study defines the homogeneous regions in the fields of main components of vectors of state of meteorological characteristics at 700 hPa level over the North Atlantic. It also specifies a physical and statistical analysis of the obtained clustering schemes which has a good scientific substantiation and shows that the clusters of the first main component are of a large-scale type, and the second and third components have a focal character. At 700 hPa level clusters differ in the intensity of interaction processes. The intensity of processes is characterized by distribution and magnitude of weight loads, average values of representative vectors and intra-cluster dispersion. We determined that the first main component makes the basic contribution to the formation of the majority of initial meteorological values, and the third main component reflects the influence of local features on interaction processes. These facts are confirmed by the manner in which loads over the studied region are distributed on the initial characteristics of atmospheric processes. Intra-cluster dispersion reflects the degree of diversity of these processes by region. The study identifies correspondence of the high-altitude homogeneous zones of the main components to the near-surface cyclic energy-active ocean zones.
Published: 8 June 2019
Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal pp 84-94; doi:10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.08
Abstract: The paper analyzes the variability of hydrological characteristics of the North-Western part of the Black for different temporal scales: long-term, seasonal and synoptic. The traditional methods of geographic investigations, such as comparative-geographic, retrospective and cartographic methods, were used. When analyzing sea level data packages and thermohaline characteristics mathematical methods, including statistical, correlation and regression analysis, were used. As a result of the conducted research quantitative estimates of tendencies of long-term changes of the thermohaline characteristics and level in the North-Western part of the Black Sea were received. Over the period of 1982-2005 an increase of water temperature in the North-Western part of the Black Sea was observed: in winter water temperature in the surface layer increased by 2оC, in the bottom layer – by more than 2оC. Over the period of 1990-2005 an increase of an average annual water temperature in Odesa area constituted 1,2°C. The most considerable and statistically significant temperature increase took place during the summer hydrological season: an average summer temperature increased during this period by 2,7оC. During transitional seasons (autumn and spring) there was also a tendency of temperature increase, however, statistically significant trend was observed only during the autumn period. There is a statistically significant negative trend observed for long-term changes of salinity. For the period of 1990-2005 an average annual salinity decreased by 1.36 ‰. A tendency of salinity decrease was observed for all seasons of the year, however, statistically significant trends are observed only in winter and summer. A close relationship between long-term changes in water salinity and runoff of the Dnieper River was also established. A sea level rise is observed at all stations of the North-Western part of the Black Sea. Over the period of 1947-2012 an average annual sea level in Odesa increased by 14 cm. An analysis of climatic changes of wind-induced sea level fluctuations showed that the frequency of surges of varying intensity remained almost unchanged, however, the frequency of sweeps changed significantly. Over the period of 1980-2012, as opposed to the period of 1947-1979, the frequency of minor sweeps (no more than 30 cm) increased, and the frequency of significant (more than 30 cm) and very significant (more than 50 cm) sweeps, on the contrary, decreased by about 5%-6%. Changes of wind-induced sea level fluctuations' character harmonize with wind direction and wind speed over the North-Western part of the Black Sea.
Published: 8 June 2019
Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal pp 109-120; doi:10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.10
Abstract: The paper is devoted to discussion of the prospects of simplified 2D hydrodynamic model use aimed at forecasting the wind-induced sea level fluctuations within the area of sea ports (Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhnyi) of the Odesa Region in the North-Western part of the Black Sea. Spatio-temporal variability of wind conditions at the sea-atmosphere division is specified based on the data of the global numerical weather prediction model of the Global Forecast System (GFS). The research includes the description of the mathematical structure of the hydrodynamic model and the results of its adaptation to the conditions of the simulated sea area. It presents the results of model verification in the version which implies adoption of wind data from the archives of GFS-analysis and GFS-forecasts for 2010, 2016 and 2017. The verification was performed by comparing wind-induced denivellations of the sea level at the ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhnyi calculated over the course of modelling and those established on the basis of observational data (with the discreteness of 6 hours). A quantitative assessment of the calculation accuracy was performed for the cases where, according to the observational data, level denivellations exceeded the value of the standard deviation for the entire series. New series of the observed and calculated model-based significant wind-induced denivellations of sea level were formed for each of the ports from the sets of samples that met this condition. Using these series estimates of the mean square error of the calculations, allowable error of calculations, correlation coefficient between the actual and calculated values of the level denivellations, the probability of the calculation method under the allowable error were obtained. It was established that in the case of use of the data from wind GFS-analysis (with spatial resolution of 0.5° both latitudinally and longitudinally) over the course of modelling the probability of calculation of significant sea level denivellation constitutes 84-85%, and in case of using the data from the GFS-archive of wind forecasts (with spatial resolution of 0.25°) – 88-91%. This allowed making a conclusion that the model has good prospects of use for operational forecast of the sea level fluctuations caused by storm wind in the version implying assimilation of the predicted information on the spatio-temporal variability of wind conditions obtained by means of the GFS global weather forecast model.
Published: 8 June 2019
Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal pp 95-108; doi:10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.09
Abstract: In 2014 Ukraine lost the Ukrainian National Automated System of Marine Forecasting for the Black Sea that was created and operated at the premises of Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine located in the Crimea. Within the framework of research works aimed at establishing a new marine forecasting system a possibility of employing the internationally acclaimed set of coupled numerical models Delft3D-FLOW + SWAN (the Simulating WAves Nearshore) for operational forecasting of the short-term (5 to 10 days) spatio-temporal variability of oceanographic features in the Ukrainian part of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea Basin is considered. To ensure operation of the models set in the forecasting mode it was suggested to use a prediction of variability of meteorological characteristics at the air-sea interface obtained with the help of the numerical weather forecast model GFS (Global Forecast System). This paper presents the results of verification of Delft3D-FLOW and SWAN numerical models which were adapted to the conditions of the North-Western part of the Black Sea and its Odesa area in the version of meteorological data (fields of wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure) assimilation from the GFS forecast archive. A technique of telescoping the spatial curvilinear computational grids with different resolution capacity was used in the process of models set adaptation to the conditions of the prognostic area. The models were verified by comparing modelling results with observational data on sea level variability in the ports of Odesa area of the North-Western part of the Black Sea (Chornomorsk, Odesa, Yuzhnyi), as well as with data on wind speed and direction, drift currents and characteristics of wind-induced waves recorded over the studied periods by the gauges of stationary hydrometeorological buoy which was mounted in the Bay of Odessa. Based on the analysis of the results of verification of coupled numerical models Delft3D-FLOW + SWAN set it was concluded that the set of coupled models has good prospects of being used in the system of operational forecasting of the variability of oceanographic parameters of the sea environment in the Ukrainian part of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea Basin in the version of assimilation of meteorological information obtained from the GFS global forecast model.
Published: 8 June 2019
Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal pp 5-13; doi:10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.01
Abstract: Introduction. The Moroccan energy system is highly dependent on external energy markets. This is why the current Moroccan energy strategy is focused on deployment of renewable technologies projects. Morocco has abundant wind resources. The purpose of this publication is identifying the characteristics of wind regime in Tangier in 2021-2050 to assess the wind potential. Results. This particular study used the data of regional climate modelling (RCM) with high spatial resolution of the CORDEX project. The article contains the results of RCM modelling using the RCP 4.5 scenario presented in the rectangular coordinate system with spatial resolution of ≈ 44 km. An ensemble of 11 climatic models was used for the analysis. To verify the RCM retrospective simulations for the period of 2011-2016 were used and to verify the RCM forecasts associated with wind speed we used the observations made at the Tangier meteorological station. The performed analysis allows us to conclude that average ensemble-based series of average monthly values are close to average values of the observed meteorological parameters. The models reflect the climatic parameters with varying degrees of accuracy and their results can be used to analyze future conditions of the climatic system in this region. Average wind speed for the period of 2021-2050 at the Tangier station will be equal to 5.1 m/s which exceeds the current value of 0.6 m/s. According to the forecast the wind speed in the territory of Tanger – Tetouan − Al Hoceima region will exceed 4.5 m/s. Comparison of the RCM-calculated wind speed value with the observational data for the period of 2005-2014 showed its increase. Based on the average annual wind speed values in each of the grid's nodes the linear regression coefficients were calculated. Conclusion. RCM-modelling showed that in 2021-2050 the territory of Tanger – Tetouan − Al Hoceima region will be dominated by the conditions being favourable for operation and further development of wind energy. Comparison of model calculations with observational data of the current climatic period showed that the Strait of Gibraltar area and the adjacent territories will see the wind speed increase in the future. The maximum value of wind speed annual run will be observed during the cold period of the year which coincides with the period of increased demand for electricity by its consumers. Directions of further research. The results of this study will be used as the basis for calculating the wind power in this region in 2021-2050.
Published: 8 June 2019
Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal pp 54-68; doi:10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.06
Abstract: The relevance of the problem consists in the need to achieve a "good status" of water in the rivers of Ukraine according to the objectives of the Water Framework Directive. The aim of the work is to identify the main trends of water quality changes over time and along the length of Siverskyi Donets River based on data of the hydrochemical observations for the period from 1985 to 2015 inclusive. To establish the water quality we used integral assessments based on hydrochemical indicators such as pollution coefficient, water pollution index, generalized index of water state in accordance with the water quality standards for fishery. The article shows that use of mandatory (priority) chemical indicators in the calculations of the pollution coefficient and the water pollution index does not reflect a real degree of water pollution, since it does not take into account a significant amount of pollutants. It was discovered that major pollutants in the main river include suspended substances, chromium, nitrite nitrogen, phenols, sulfates. For the right-bank tributaries of Siversky Donets (illustrated by the example of the Kryvyi Torets River) originating from Donetsk Upland heavy metals (chromium, copper, zinc) pollution is typical. The degree of pollution based on the coefficient of pollution for average multi-year period is deemed as catastrophic, and based on the index of water pollution it is labelled with IV (contaminated) and V (very contaminated) quality classes indicating a violation of the ecosystem stability. Based on the generalized index, the water is also classified as "contaminated". The calculations based on various integral indicators of water quality revealed that pollution of the Siversky Donets River increases downstream. This is due to growing anthropogenic impact (municipal and industrial waters of large cities, discharge of mine and open pit waters into surface waterways, withdrawal of the runoff for its redirection to canals and water conduits, presence of diffuse sources of pollution by biogenic and organic substances). The beginning of the 21st century saw a trend towards improvement established in the chronological course of integral indicators of water quality which was associated with decrease production volumes. According to the generalized index of water state the water quality of the main river gradually changes from “contaminated” and “very contaminated” to “moderately contaminated”, but contamination by heavy metals, biogenic and organic substances remains high.