Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan
Published: 24 August 2020
Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi , Volume 17, pp 117-128; doi:10.20956/jmsk.v17i1.10236
Abstract: This study aims to compare the best method on the forecasting system of rainfall in Medan using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Naive Model, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) . The data used in this study is rainfall data for 10 years (2009 – 2019). From the simulation by comparing existing method, the best model is SES with and value of MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 2,47%. And then SARIMA (1,01,1)(4,0,3)12 whit value of MAPE is2,93%. Both of this model is high accurate model because value of MAPE resulted < 10%.
Keywords: rainfall / model / smoothing / Sarima / Exponential / autoregressive / Whit / Naive / Medan / Is2
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