Hydrological hazard estimation for the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza, Morelos, Mexico

Abstract

The hydrological hazard for the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza, State of Morelos, Mexico, is evaluated considering the overflow process of the rivers located in the Yautepec sub-basin. Different scenarios of hydrological hazard were generated to identify those areas with high flood potential using hydraulic modeling for three return periods (Rp) of 50, 100 and 500 years based on statistical analysis of the maximum annual discharge of the Yautepec hydrometric station. We used the Hec-Ras software and geographic information systems (GIS) to model the different flood scenarios. Our results indicate that 10% (1.5 km²) of the total urban area of the municipality will be flooded for a return period of 50 years. About 12% (1.8 km²) of the territory will be affected by flood for a Rp of 100 years. For a Rp of 500 years, approximately 13.5% (2.1 km²) of the municipality’s area will be flooded. Spatially, the central and southern regions of the municipality will be affected by flood heights greater than 1 m for Rp of 100 and 500 years. The northern zone will have heights of less than 0.50 m for Rp of 50 years. Our results can be used as a tool to prevent and reduce the impact of future floods in the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza.