Effect of False Confidence on Asset Allocation Decisions of Households

Abstract

This paper investigates whether false confidence, as characterized by a high level of personal mastery and a low level of intelligence (IQ), results in frequent investor trading and subsequent investor wealth erosion across time. Using the National Longitudinal Survey (NLSY79), change in wealth and asset allocation across time is modeled as a function of various behavioral, socio-economic and demographic variables drawn from prior literature. Findings of this research reveal that false confidence is indeed a predictor of trading activity in individual investment assets, and it also has a negative impact on individual wealth creation across time.