What drives the decoupling between economic growth and energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s agricultural sector?

Abstract

Many studies have shown that the rapid agricultural mechanization development in China led to substantial energy consumption and CO₂ emission growth. To better explain the mechanism behind the decoupling between economic growth and CO₂ emissions, this paper extends the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) and production-theoretical decomposition (PDA) considering agricultural decoupling from both structural and technical perspectives. The results reveal that (1) China’s agricultural decoupling performance was not ideal. Investment and investment efficiency were the most important factors influencing the decoupling status. The main decoupling obstacle was a higher investment in productivity rather than in energy conservation and carbon reduction. (2) The decoupling status and investment orientation of decoupling efforts among regions were different. Strong negative decoupling statuses frequently occurred in the eastern region, whose main disadvantage was high potential energy intensity. The decoupling status of the central region exhibited expansive features. The decoupling key is to invest more in energy-saving technology rather than in production. The western region changed from weak decoupling to expansive negative decoupling. Both output technology and energy-related factors should be the main investment targets. (3) Weak decoupling and expansive negative decoupling were the most common statuses among provinces. The influence mechanism of drivers exhibited a high spatial heterogeneity at the provincial level. Therefore, the study offered a convincing basis for local governments to formulate low-carbon agricultural development policies by identifying the main decoupling drivers.