Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages
Open Access
- 11 January 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
- Vol. 118 (4)
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2017524118
Abstract
Precipitation extremes have increased across many regions of the United States, with further increases anticipated in response to additional global warming. Quantifying the impact of these precipitation changes on flood damages is necessary to estimate the costs of climate change. However, there is little empirical evidence linking changes in precipitation to the historically observed increase in flood losses. We use >6,600 reports of state-level flood damage to quantify the historical relationship between precipitation and flood damages in the United States. Our results show a significant, positive effect of both monthly and 5-d state-level precipitation on state-level flood damages. In addition, we find that historical precipitation changes have contributed approximately one-third of cumulative flood damages over 1988 to 2017 (primary estimate 36%; 95% CI 20 to 46%), with the cumulative impact of precipitation change totaling $73 billion (95% CI 39 to $91 billion). Further, climate models show that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased the probability of exceeding precipitation thresholds at the extremely wet quantiles that are responsible for most flood damages. Climate models project continued intensification of wet conditions over the next three decades, although a trajectory consistent with UN Paris Agreement goals significantly curbs that intensification. Taken together, our results quantify the contribution of precipitation trends to recent increases in flood damages, advance estimates of the costs associated with historical greenhouse gas emissions, and provide further evidence that lower levels of future warming are very likely to reduce financial losses relative to the current global warming trajectory.This publication has 45 references indexed in Scilit:
- Precipitation extremes over the continental United States in a transient, high‐resolution, ensemble climate model experimentJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013
- Examining the impact of land use/land cover characteristics on flood lossesJournal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2013
- A statistical analysis of insurance damage claims related to rainfall extremesHydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013
- A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disastersClimatic Change, 2011
- The Unsustainable Trend of Natural Hazard Losses in the United StatesSustainability, 2011
- Time-Dependent Changes in Extreme-Precipitation Return-Period Amounts in the Continental United StatesJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2009
- How spatially coherent and statistically robust are temporal changes in extreme precipitation in the contiguous USA?International Journal of Climatology, 2008
- Attribution studies of observed land precipitation changes with nine coupled modelsGeophysical Research Letters, 2005
- An Examination of Flood Damage Data Trends in the United StatesJournal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 2005
- On the rheological models used for time‐domain methods of seismic wave propagationGeophysical Research Letters, 2005