Stochastic Analysis of Embodied Carbon Dioxide Emissions Considering Variability of Construction Sites

Abstract

The current method of estimating CO₂ emissions during the construction phase does not consider the variability that can occur in actual work. Therefore, this study aims at probabilistic CO₂ estimation dealing with the statistical characteristics in activity data of building construction work, focused on concrete pouring work and based on field data. The probabilistically estimated CO₂ emissions have some differences from CO₂ emissions measured by current deterministic methods. The results revealed that the minimum difference was 11.4%, and the maximum difference was 132.7%. This study also used Monte Carlo simulations to derive information on a probability model of CO₂ emissions. Results of the analysis revealed that there is a risk of underestimating emissions because the amount of emissions was estimated at a level that exceeds the 95% confidence interval of the simulation results. In addition, the probability that CO₂ emissions using the measured activities data were less than the estimated CO₂ emissions using the bill of quantity was 73.2% in the probability distribution model.