PEMODELAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) DAN JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII) MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI BIRESPON SPLINE TRUNCATED BERBASIS GUI R
Published: 30 November 2020
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang , Volume 8, pp 134-143; doi:10.26714/jsunimus.8.2.2020.134-143
Abstract: The capital market is one of the economic drivers and representations for assessing the condition of companies in a country. Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) as one of the institutions in the capital market has 24 types of indexes that can be used as main indicators that reflect the performance of capital market, two of them are the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) and the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). CSPI and JII movements are influenced by several factors, both from domestic and from foreign, such as inflation and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Modeling of CSPI and JII in this study was carried out using biresponses spline truncated nonparametric regression methods using Graphical User Interface (GUI) R with the intention of facilitating the analysis process. This method is used because there is a correlation between CSPI and JII and there is no specific relationship pattern between the response variable (CSPI and JII) and the predictor variable (inflation and DJIA). The best biresponses spline truncated model is determined by the order, number and location of the knots seen based on minimum GCV criteria. By using monthly data from January 2016 to December 2019, the best biresponses spline truncated model is obtained when the model for CSPI is in order 2 and the model for JII is in order 3 with 2 knots for each predictor variable. This model has a coefficient of determination of 85,54437% and MAPE of 2,65595% so that it has a very good ability in forecasting.
Keywords: model / market / capital / stock / JII / knots / Cspi / Spline Truncated
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