Short-Term Forecasting Model of Animal Food Commodities in Central Sulawesi

Abstract

Shifting patterns of community consumption from vegetable protein to animal protein encouraged high demand for animal food, so it was needed an estimate of the supply and demand for its products. Therefore, this research aimed to analyze the short-term forecasting model of the production and price of beef and broiler meat in Central Sulawesi. The research used time series data. Production data and price of beef and broiler meat were taken from 2015 - 2019. The analytical tool used was the ARIMA Box-Janskin forecasting method. The results showed a short-term forecasting model for beef production (1,0,0) and broiler meat (3,2,1). Short-term forecasting model for beef price (1,0,1) and broiler meat (1,1,1). This finding could be used as a reference in making policies related to the production and price of beef and broilers meat in order to meet the needs of the community, especially in Central Sulawesi.