Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity
Top Cited Papers
Open Access
- 12 February 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Science
- Vol. 371 (6530), 741-745
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe6522
Abstract
We are currently faced with the question of how the CoV-2 severity may change in the years ahead. Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly, but disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. Our model, incorporating these components of immunity, recapitulates both the current severity of CoV-2 and the benign nature of HCoVs, suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold. We predict a different outcome for an emergent coronavirus that causes severe disease in children. These results reinforce the importance of behavioral containment during pandemic vaccine rollout, while prompting us to evaluate scenarios for continuing vaccination in the endemic phase.Keywords
Funding Information
- NIH Office of the Director (U01AI150747)
- NIH Office of the Director (U01 HL139483)
- NIH Office of the Director (U01 AI144616)
This publication has 38 references indexed in Scilit:
- First infection by all four non-severe acute respiratory syndrome human coronaviruses takes place during childhoodBMC Infectious Diseases, 2013
- Structure and function of immunoglobulinsJournal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, 2010
- Duration of Antibody Responses after Severe Acute Respiratory SyndromeEmerging Infectious Diseases, 2007
- Using Data on Social Contacts to Estimate Age-specific Transmission Parameters for Respiratory-spread Infectious AgentsAmerican Journal of Epidemiology, 2006
- A crucial role of angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in SARS coronavirus–induced lung injuryNature Medicine, 2005
- Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllableProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2004
- SARS: epidemiologyRespirology, 2003
- The time course of the immune response to experimental coronavirus infection of manEpidemiology and Infection, 1990
- A Catalytic Model of Infection for MeaslesJournal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, 1974
- Effects of a "new" human respiratory virus in volunteers.BMJ, 1967