Optimal Control of Reservoir Operation Policy under Different Inflow Probabilities: A Case Study of Mohamed V Dam, Morocco

Abstract

This paper examines reservoir operation optimization considering probabilistic inflows. Optimal control of this model is obtained using Pontryagin's Minimum Principle. The formulated problem includes non-linear equations on the state variables related to evaporation, stochastic inflows derived from historical time series and target ending storage constraint. Mohamed V dam is used as a case study to derive optimal operating rules through numerical simulation. The effect of inflows variability is demonstrated and a risk assessment of initial storage's variation is discussed. A benchmark based on Genetic Algorithms showed the developed model's performance. 9% of improvement for the low inflows scenario, are achieved. (C) 2020 L&H Scientific Publishing, LLC. All rights reserved.