Genomic characterization and epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India

Abstract

Delhi, the national capital of India, has experienced multiple SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in 2020 and reached population seropositivity of over 50% by 2021. During April 2021, the city became overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases and fatalities, as a new variant B.1.617.2 (Delta) replaced B.1.1.7 (Alpha). A Bayesian model explains the growth advantage of Delta through a combination of increased transmissibility and reduced sensitivity to immune responses generated against earlier variants (median estimates; ×1.5-fold, 20% reduction). Seropositivity of an employee and family cohort increased from 42% to 87.5% between March and July 2021, with 27% reinfections, as judged by increased antibody concentration after a previous decline. The likely high transmissibility and partial evasion of immunity by the Delta variant contributed to an overwhelming surge in Delhi.