Turning globalization 4.0 into a real and sustainable success for all stakeholders

Abstract

The paper aims to provide an overview of the major opportunities and challenges of the fourth phase of globalization in the current macro scenario characterized by a high level of economic and geopolitical complexity and uncertainty. The assumptions and results reported in this work are based mostly on the judgmental opinion of the author and on his critical analysis of macroeconomic data and global trends. The author of the paper is a seasoned chief economic advisor and professor of global economics and disruptive innovation. Forecasting global market trends and future scenarios in a highly unpredictable business environment is always a complex task which cannot be undertaken simply relying on quantitative research techniques based on historical datasets since the past is not always a good predictor of future events. The qualitative approach adopted for this research is based on multiple forms of data sources and the following activities: (1) identification of the key forces and trends in the environment (i.e. environmental scanning); (2) assessing the driving forces and trends by importance and uncertainty; (3) envisioning potential alternative scenarios; and (4) assessing the potential implications of each trend and scenario. The result of this analysis confirms the central role that technological development is likely to have in the near future as a major driver of disruptive change in the economic and social models of many countries and leads to the conclusion that the groundbreaking and disruptive innovations of the future should be perceived as a potential opportunity and not just as a threat by stakeholders in the international community.