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Vector Autoregressive Integrated (VARI) Method for Forecasting the Number of Internasional Visitor in Batam and Jakarta

Septie Wulandary
Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi , Volume 17, pp 94-108; doi:10.20956/jmsk.v17i1.10536

Abstract: Forecasting methods that are often used are time series analysis, the Autoregressive (AR) method. The AR method only carries out univariate analysis, meaning that it carries out a separate model between the number of international visitor coming to Indonesia through Batam and Jakarta. Though there is a possibility, the number of international visitor arriving through Jakarta affects the number of international visitor arriving through Batam. Therefore, in this study the Vector Autoregressive Integrated (VARI) method is used. The VARI model is used on the number of international visitor arrivals per month at Batam and Jakarta for the period Januari 2014 – December 2019. VARI model formation through several stages, namely stationarity test, autoregressive order determination, VARI model formation, and diagnostic checking of the model. With the VARI model, VARI(5,1), the two significant simultaneously equation results are obtained. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in this model are as follows 1,98% and 2,48% in predicting the number of international visitor arrivals in Batam and Jakarta. In this study also forecasting the number of international visitor arrivals in Batam and Jakarta in January – December 2020
Keywords: model / forecasting / autoregressive / Arrivals / Visitor / Januari / Batam and Jakarta

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