The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate
Top Cited Papers
Open Access
- 15 January 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Springer Science and Business Media LLC in Nature Communications
- Vol. 12 (1), 1-13
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20699-8
Abstract
Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, and undetected spreaders, which strongly contribute to ”hidden" infection chains. Here, we study a semi-analytical model and identify two tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number \({R}_{t}^{H}\) of the hidden chains becomes too large to be compensated by the TTI capabilities, and (2) the number of new infections exceeds the tracing capacity. Both trigger a self-accelerating spread. We investigate how these tipping points depend on challenges like limited cooperation, missing contacts, and imperfect isolation. Our results suggest that TTI alone is insufficient to contain an otherwise unhindered spread of SARS-CoV-2, implying that complementary measures like social distancing and improved hygiene remain necessary.
Funding Information
- Max-Planck-Gesellschaft
- Ministry of Education, Government of Chile | Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica (PIA project FB0001)
- Volkswagen Foundation
- Joachim Herz Stiftung
This publication has 65 references indexed in Scilit:
- Time Course of Lung Changes at Chest CT during Recovery from Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)Radiology, 2020
- Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in GermanyThe New England Journal of Medicine, 2020
- Asymptomatic carrier state, acute respiratory disease, and pneumonia due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): Facts and mythsJournal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection, 2020
- Persistence and clearance of viral RNA in 2019 novel coronavirus disease rehabilitation patientsChinese Medical Journal, 2020
- The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirusJournal of Travel Medicine, 2020
- Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseasesScientific Reports, 2011
- Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllableProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2004
- The MATLAB ODE SuiteSIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 1997
- An immunization model for a heterogeneous populationTheoretical Population Biology, 1978
- A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemicsProceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character, 1927