Application of GARCH-Copula Model in Portfolio Optimization
Open Access
- 31 May 2015
- journal article
- Published by Masaryk University Press in Financial Assets and Investing
- Vol. 6 (2), 7-20
- https://doi.org/10.5817/fai2015-2-1
Abstract
Although the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory was set by Markowitz in 1952, the portfolio optimization problem is a never-ending research topic for both academics and practitioners. In this problem the future prediction of time series evolution plays an important role. However, it is rarely addressed in research. In the paper we analyze the applicability of the GARCH-copula model. To be more concrete we assume the investor maximizing Sharpe ratio while the future evolution of the time series is simulated by means of the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model using the copula modelling approach. The bootstrapping technique is applied as a benchmark. From the empirical results we found out that the GARCH-copula model provides better forecasts of future financial time series evolution than the bootstrapping method. Assuming the investor is maximizing the Sharpe ratio, both the final wealth increases and maximum drawdown decreases when we apply the GARCH-copula model compared to the application of bootstrapping technique.Keywords
This publication has 12 references indexed in Scilit:
- Dynamic Copula Methods in FinancePublished by Wiley ,2011
- Estimating value at risk of portfolio by conditional copula-GARCH methodInsurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2009
- Beyond Sharpe ratio: Optimal asset allocation using different performance ratiosJournal of Banking & Finance, 2008
- The risk return tradeoff in the long run: 1836–2003Journal of Financial Economics, 2007
- Different Approaches to Risk Estimation in Portfolio TheoryThe Journal of Portfolio Management, 2004
- Copula Methods in FinancePublished by Wiley ,2004
- Dependence and Order in Families of Archimedean CopulasJournal of Multivariate Analysis, 1997
- Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom InflationEconometrica, 1982
- Mutual Fund PerformanceThe Journal of Business, 1966
- The Variation of Certain Speculative PricesThe Journal of Business, 1963