empirical study of air transport demand forecast in Nigeria
Open Access
- 5 May 2023
- journal article
- Published by Centre of Sociological Research, NGO in Journal of Sustainable Development of Transport and Logistics
- Vol. 8 (1), 6-23
- https://doi.org/10.14254/jsdtl.2023.8-1.1
Abstract
The aim of the study is to estimate the air travel demand forecast of domestic passengers’ travels in Nigeria from 2002-2016. Data wesourced from Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, and Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria. The study utilized multiple regressions model using Stata-Graphic software solver to analyze the data. From the analysis, the result shows that there is significant relationship between the explanatory variable (passengers) and unexplanatory variables National Disposable Income, Population, Average Airfare, Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rate, Total Expenditure, and Crude oil price, accounted for adjusted R of 93.624% relationship with demand for domestic air travel of passenger. The R-square statistic shows that the fitted model explains the variability in Number of passenger (NPAX) which is 96.8124%. The Hypothesis testing reveals that National Disposable Income and Air fare have strong statistically significant relationship with the demand for domestic air travel with P-value of 0.0013. Moreso, there is statistically significant relationship for National Disposable Income, Average Airfare, and Crude oil price with P-value of 0.0017 and 0.0445 respectively. Furthermore, forecast of the number of passengers and average airfare was carried out using ARIMA (1,0,0) model which made available the future predicted values for the number of passenger movement and average airfare for the next 10-12 years to come. Thus, the study recommends that stakeholders in the air transport sector should work towards improving the capacity and infrastructure to accommodate the growth of air travel demand for domestic air travel in Nigeria. Policy implications were made on how to regulate the sector by having a good pricing policy to control the air fare for the industry.Keywords
This publication has 10 references indexed in Scilit:
- Efficiency Driver in Nigerian Airports: A Bootstrap DEA–Censored Quantile Regression ApproachJournal of Aviation Technology and Engineering, 2018
- Efficiency in nigerian airportsCase Studies on Transport Policy, 2017
- The Determinants of Domestic Air Passenger Demand in the Republic of South AfricaMediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 2013
- An Analysis of the Impact of Air Transport Sector to Economic Development in NigeriaIOSR Journal of Business and Management, 2013
- A dynamic demand analysis of the United States air-passenger serviceTransportation Research. Part E, Logistics and Transportation Review, 2012
- Estimating time series and cross section tourism demand models: Mainland United States to Hawaii dataTourism Management, 2011
- Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travelInternational Journal of Forecasting, 2010
- Elasticities of demand for leisure air travel: A system modelling approachJournal of Air Transport Management, 2006
- Price elasticities of demand for passenger air travel: a meta-analysisJournal of Air Transport Management, 2002
- Demand for leisure air travel and limits to growthJournal of Air Transport Management, 2000