The Impact of Basel III Capital Regulation on Credit Risk: A Hybrid Model

Abstract

This research examined the impact of Basel III capital regulation (BCR) on credit risk (CR) using a sample of 25 commercial banks in Lebanon over the period 2012–2017. BCR is measured using the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and the common equity tier one ratio (CET1 ratio), CR is measured using net provision for credit losses /total assets. To analyze the data, we constructed a hybrid model based on 3 statistical approaches. First, we modelled the dual impact of BCR and CR using probabilistic inference in the framework of Bayesian Belief Network formalism (BBN). Second, to highlight more about the correlation between BCR and CR, we used Spearman correlation test as a nonparametric approach. Third to study the simultaneous effect of CAR and CET1 ratio on CR we applied multivariate regression analysis. By analyzing the probabilistic inference for the first approach we concluded that there is an effect of BCR on CR especially for the high level of CET1 ratio, but when we investigated more if this effect is significant using the Spearman correlation test and the multivariate regression analysis, we concluded that there is no effect statistically significant of Basel III capital regulation (BCR) on credit risk (CR).