Establishing a Range of Extreme Precipitation Estimates in California for Planning in the Face of Climate Change
Open Access
- 1 September 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) in Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
- Vol. 147 (9), 04021056
- https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0001410
Abstract
For California water resource planning in the face of climate change, hydrological and water distribution models require inputs of high spatial– and temporal–resolution temperature and precipitation projections. We used a quantile delta mapping (QDM) procedure along with bias correction and localized constructed analogs (LOCA) downscaling to produce 6-km temperature and precipitation fields that preserve the relative changes in these quantities from climate model projections. We developed a wetter moderate warming (WMW) case from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 emissions scenario and a dry extreme warming (DEW) case from the RCP8.5 scenario to establish a range of projected hydroclimatological conditions. In both cases, we found that extreme precipitation becomes more extreme, but the sign of changes in moderate precipitation events differs between the two cases. The precipitation estimate range is most broad in southern California, where it varies by a factor of 2 and is 50% across the Sierra Nevada. This approach, adopted by the California Department of Water Resources, balances a host of practical water resource planning considerations with the evolving state of the science for future hydroclimatological projections.Keywords
This publication has 50 references indexed in Scilit:
- Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?Journal of Climate, 2015
- HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2012
- Skill, Correction, and Downscaling of GCM-Simulated PrecipitationJournal of Climate, 2012
- Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere‐ocean climate modelsGeophysical Research Letters, 2012
- Atmospheric Rivers, Floods and the Water Resources of CaliforniaWater, 2011
- On the need for bias correction of regional climate change projections of temperature and precipitationGeophysical Research Letters, 2008
- Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessmentsClimatic Change, 2008
- Climate change scenarios for the California regionClimatic Change, 2008
- CalSim: Generalized Model for Reservoir System AnalysisJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2004
- Dynamic modeling of orographically induced precipitationReviews of Geophysics, 1994