Evaluating the impacts of climate change on industrial water demand by sector

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on industrial water demand (IWD) directly affect IWD management. In this study, we propose a framework for evaluating different impacts of climate change on IWD by sector, considering both direct and indirect effects. Data from 34 industrial sectors in Hebei Province, China, showed that the impacts of climate change varied by sector, and IWD in 22 of the 34 sectors was affected, ranging from -15.11 to 37.36% under the average rates of change in precipitation and temperature. The corresponding volumetric change of IWD was between -31.148 and 141.890 million m³, considering the difference in the water demand scale between sectors. The overall impact of climate change on IWD gradually decreased from more than 12.8% to approximately 4.1% from 2007 to 2016 due to the substantial improvement of water use efficiency. The indirect effects caused by the total industrial output value offset about 60-50% of the direct growth impacts. By contrast, the increase in IWD caused by the rise in temperature accounted for nearly 90% of the change, whereas only approximately 10% was caused by the decrease in precipitation. In general, an industrial sector may be directly and indirectly affected by temperature and precipitation, and the different impacts may offset each other. This study provides evidence and explanations for the heterogeneity of climate change impacts, and the research results can provide information for regional industrial water resource managers to adapt to climate change.