An Analysis of Demand Behavior in Brazilian Ports by Different Institutional or Natural Interventions

Abstract

The institutional changes in Brazilian port administration were made to change the behavior of demand and in investments infrastructure of the Brazilian ports. The Brazilian acts also improve the relation and intervention of international authorities in the ports operation. As result, in the last decades, from 2005 to 2011, the Brazilian ports has changed, also, in operation or infrastructure by government intervention or by some interruption in operation. It is necessary to say that some interventions is not making by political decision makers, but by exogenous actors. The hypotheses that economical series follow tendencies that are interrupted by external or intended interventions are nowadays very fruitful. Some empirical approaches to measure the brake point or magnitude of interruption in an economical series were proposed by some econometricians highlighting the intervention impacts technique proposed by Box e Tiao (1975) because of its robustness. The classification of intervention measuring the magnitude, direction and signal compared by the common characteristics of each intervention, is an important deal to foreign decisions by political decision makers, spatially in a regulator market like the Brazilian. Therefore, this paper aims to apply, to the Brazilian maritime ports demands the intervention impacts technique to classify the types of interventions measuring their impacts after the institutional changes made in Brazilian legislation. As case study, it is presented an investigation using the monthly time series of containers demand for some Brazilian ports from January 2005 to October 2011, followed by the numerical results and considerations. As result, we have mapped some types of interventions and indicating the form that the class of intervention can be modeled.