The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies

Abstract

Climate change and global warming are related to the demand for energy, energy efficiency, and CO₂ emissions. In this research, in order to project the trends in final energy demand, energy intensity, and CO₂ emission production in Ecuador during a period between 2000 and 2030, a model has been developed based on the dynamics of the systems supported by Vensim simulation models. The energy matrix of Ecuador has changed in recent years, giving more importance to hydropower. It is conclusive that, if industrialized country policies or trends on the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency were applied, the production of CO₂ emissions by 2030 in Ecuador would reach 42,191.4 KTCO₂, a value well below the 75,182.6 KTCO₂ that would be seen if the current conditions are maintained. In the same way, by 2030, energy intensity would be reduced to 54% compared to the beginning of the simulation period.