Kajian Perbandingan Rata-Rata Umur Panen dan Produktivitas Padi Antar-Provinsi di Indonesia

Abstract

This research is motivated by the difference between fixed figures and forecasts the potential rice harvest area in 2020 released by BPS-Statistics Indonesia as the official statistical provider in Indonesia. BPS-Statistics Indonesia forecasts the potential rice harvest area in the next three months based on observations of the rice growth phase. The assumption used by BPS-Statistics Indonesia to forecast is that the age of rice harvest is the same across regions. This assumption is thought to cause the 2020 rice harvest area forecast to be higher than it should be. This study aimed to test the average harvest age of rice between provinces in Indonesia. Rice harvest age data was obtained by converting the data of the rice growth phase from the Area Sampling Frame (ASF) survey. The comparison methods used thematic maps, descriptive statistics, F-test, and Cartesian diagrams. The results showed that the best provinces measured by high rice productivity and short rice harvesting age were East Java, DI Yogyakarta, Central Java, West Java, and Aceh. The province with the shortest average rice harvest age was East Java, while the longest was Central Kalimantan. Based on the F-test, several provinces had significantly different average rice harvest ages with a confidence level of 99%. Therefore, it is recommended that BPS-Statistics Indonesia consider the effect of spatial dependence in forecasting the potential for rice harvested area.