Enhanced streamflow prediction with SWAT using support vector regression for spatial calibration: A case study in the Illinois River watershed, U.S.

Abstract

Accurate streamflow prediction plays a pivotal role in hydraulic project design, nonpoint source pollution estimation, and water resources planning and management. However, the highly non-linear relationship between rainfall and runoff makes prediction difficult with desirable accuracy. To improve the accuracy of monthly streamflow prediction, a seasonal Support Vector Regression (SVR) model coupled to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed for 13 subwatersheds in the Illinois River watershed (IRW), U.S. Terrain, precipitation, soil, land use and land cover, and monthly streamflow data were used to build the SWAT model. SWAT Streamflow output and the upstream drainage area were used as two input variables into SVR to build the hybrid SWAT-SVR model. The Calibration Uncertainty Procedure (SWAT-CUP) and Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-2 (SUFI-2) algorithms were applied to compare the model performance against SWAT-SVR. The spatial calibration and leave-one-out sampling methods were used to calibrate and validate the hybrid SWAT-SVR model. The results showed that the SWAT-SVR model had less deviation and better performance than SWAT-CUP simulations. SWAT-SVR predicted streamflow more accurately during the wet season than the dry season. The model worked well when it was applied to simulate medium flows with discharge between 5 m³ s^-1 and 30 m³ s^-1, and its applicable spatial scale fell between 500 to 3000 km². The overall performance of the model on yearly time series is “Satisfactory”. This new SWAT-SVR model has not only the ability to capture intrinsic non-linear behaviors between rainfall and runoff while considering the mechanism of runoff generation but also can serve as a reliable regional tool for an ungauged or limited data watershed that has similar hydrologic characteristics with the IRW.