Distinct temporal trends in breast cancer incidence from 1997 to 2016 by molecular subtypes: a population-based study of Scottish cancer registry data
Open Access
- 19 June 2020
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Springer Science and Business Media LLC in British Journal of Cancer
- Vol. 123 (5), 852-859
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41416-020-0938-z
Abstract
Background We describe temporal trends in breast cancer incidence by molecular subtypes in Scotland because public health prevention programmes, diagnostic and therapeutic services are shaped by differences in tumour biology. Methods Population-based cancer registry data on 72,217 women diagnosed with incident primary breast cancer from 1997 to 2016 were analysed. Age-standardised rates (ASR) and age-specific incidence were estimated by tumour subtype after imputing the 8% of missing oestrogen receptor (ER) status. Joinpoint regression and age–period–cohort models were used to assess whether significant differences were observed in incidence trends by ER status. Results Overall, ER-positive tumour incidence increased by 0.4%/year (95% confidence interval (CI): −0.1, 1.0). Among routinely screened women aged 50–69 years, we observed an increase in ASR from 1997 to 2011 (1.6%/year, 95% CI: 1.2–2.1). ER-negative tumour incidence decreased among all ages by 2.5%/year (95% CI: −3.9 to −1.1%) over the study period. Compared with the 1941–1959 birth cohort, women born in 1912–1940 had lower incidence rate ratios (IRR) for ER+ tumours and women born in 1960–1986 had lower IRR for ER− tumours. Conclusions Future incidence and survival reporting should be monitored by molecular subtypes to inform clinical planning and cancer control programmes.Keywords
This publication has 44 references indexed in Scilit:
- Molecular characteristics and prognostic features of breast cancer in Nigerian compared with UK womenBreast Cancer Research and Treatment, 2012
- Heterogeneity in breast cancerJCI Insight, 2011
- Traditional breast cancer risk factors in relation to molecular subtypes of breast cancerBreast Cancer Research and Treatment, 2011
- Incidence of Breast Cancer in the United States: Current and Future TrendsJNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2011
- Age-Period-Cohort Models in Cancer Surveillance Research: Ready for Prime Time?Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, 2011
- Risk factors by molecular subtypes of breast cancer across a population-based study of women 56 years or youngerBreast Cancer Research and Treatment, 2011
- Reduced risk of oestrogen receptor positive breast cancer among peri- and post-menopausal women in Scotland following a striking decrease in use of hormone replacement therapyEuropean Journal of Cancer, 2010
- NICE approves trastuzumab for early stage breast cancerBMJ, 2006
- Predicting the future burden of cancerNature Reviews Cancer, 2005
- Reliability of cancer registration data in Scotland, 1997European Journal of Cancer, 2002