ANALYSING DELAY IMPACT FROM POTENTIAL RISK FACTORS ON PROJECT DELIVERY OF OIL AND GAS PIPELINE: A CASE STUDY IN IRAQ

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to present the design and specifications of an integrated Delay Analysis Framework (DAF), which could be used to quantify the delay caused by the Risk Factors (RFs) in Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) projects in a simple and systematic way. The main inputs of the DAF are (i) the potential list of RFs in the projects and their impact levels on the projects and the estimated maximum and minimum duration of each task. Monte Carlo Simulation integrated within @Risk simulator was the key process algorithm that used to quantify the impact of delay caused by the associated RFs. The key output of the DAF is the amount of potential delay caused by RFs in the OGP project. The functionalities of the developed DAF were evaluated using a case study of newly developed OGP project, in the south of Iraq. It is found that the case study project might have delayed by 45 days if neglected the consideration of the RFs associated with the project at the construction stage. The paper concludes that identifying the associated RFs and analysing the potential delay in advance will help in reducing the construction delay and improving the effectiveness of the project delivery by taking suitable risk mitigation measures.