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Estimation and Impact Factor of Pathogens in the Lijiang River Using Water Quality Modeling

Jenny Zhang, Danqing Yuan

Abstract: The pathogen plays an important role in spreading infection and bad impact on the public health of the river. Therefore, water quality as a model is used to simulate the spreading and fate of the pathogen in Lijiang River, it is located in Lijiang City, Yunnan Province, China (100°25'E, 26°86'N). Even at low bacterial levels, there is a risk of pathogens in the Lijiang River ecosystem. The water quality model results showed that the spatiotemporal (space and time) migration of pathogenic bacteria in Lijiang River from 2005 to 2015 was quantitatively revealed by the model simulation. The simulation results also showed that the transports of pathogenic bacteria in Lijiang River are extremely sensitive to the speed distribution and seasonal temperature characteristics. The study found that the rising water temperature in spring leads to a sharp rise in the concentration of pathogenic bacteria. When the water temperature is low in winter, the simulated pathogenic bacteria are relatively stable, which is lower than the concentration of pathogenic bacteria at high temperature. If the spring water temperature rises, the flow rate increases, the concentration of pathogenic bacteria accordingly increases. This research recommends the development of best management practices to control microbial growth in river basins.
Keywords: Pathogen / Water Quality / Velocity / Temperature

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