Global 1-km present and future hourly anthropogenic heat flux
Open Access
- 22 February 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Springer Science and Business Media LLC in Scientific Data
- Vol. 8 (1), 1-14
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-00850-w
Abstract
Numerical weather prediction models are progressively used to downscale future climate in cities at increasing spatial resolutions. Boundary conditions representing rapidly growing urban areas are imperative to more plausible future predictions. In this work, 1-km global anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) datasets of the present and future are constructed. To improve present AHE maps, 30 arc-second VIIRS satellite imagery outputs such as nighttime lights and night-fires were incorporated along with the LandScanTM population dataset. A futuristic scenario of AHE was also developed while considering pathways of radiative forcing (i.e. representative concentration pathways), pathways of social conditions (i.e. shared socio-economic pathways), a 1-km future urbanization probability map, and a model to estimate changes in population distribution. The new dataset highlights two distinct features; (1) a more spatially-heterogeneous representation of AHE is captured compared with other recent datasets, and (2) consideration of future urban sprawls and climate change in futuristic AHE maps. Significant increases in projected AHE for multiple cities under a worst-case scenario strengthen the need for further assessment of futuristic AHE.Funding Information
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (17H01292, 17H01292, 17H01292, 17H01292)
This publication has 29 references indexed in Scilit:
- The representative concentration pathways: an overviewClimatic Change, 2011
- A special issue on the RCPsClimatic Change, 2011
- High‐resolution (space, time) anthropogenic heat emissions: London 1970–2025International Journal of Climatology, 2011
- Global to city scale urban anthropogenic heat flux: model and variabilityInternational Journal of Climatology, 2010
- Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effectsGeophysical Research Letters, 2010
- Integrating anthropogenic heat flux with global climate modelsGeophysical Research Letters, 2009
- Anthropogenic water vapor emissions in TokyoWater Resources Research, 2008
- Impact of anthropogenic heat on urban climate in TokyoAtmospheric Environment, 1999
- A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay areaEnvironment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 1997
- The fitting of the logistic equation to the rate of increase of population densityPopulation Ecology, 1965