Land cover change detection in the Turkish coastal zone based on 28-year (1990–2018) Corine data

Abstract

In this research, land cover changes in the coastal region of Turkey were analyzed using the Corine dataset between 1990 and 2018. Changes in each period were analyzed by using the rate of change and the annual rate of change, the transition matrix of net changes, and the transition probability matrix. In order to predict land cover change trends and to determine future land cover change probabilities, a combination of Markov and cellular automata models was used. It was determined that the highest increase in each study period was in artificial surfaces and the highest decrease was in the forest and the semi-natural area. The total forest areas were converted to the other land cover type in the first study period amounting to 2479.32 km². Also, it was decreased and transformed by about 62.47 km², 118.82 km², and 203.09 km² of the forest area that existed in the second, third, and fourth periods respectively. The results indicate that the probabilities of the increasing area will be covered by artificial surfaces and agricultural areas. It is estimated that the rate of 57% in 1990, the initial year of the forest areas, will decrease to 53.4% in 2034 and to 53% in 2050. Also, the rate of 2.1% in 1990, the initial year of the artificial surfaces, will increase to 4.5% in 2034 and to 5.0% in 2050. It is seen that more artificial surfaces will be needed in the Turkish coastal region due to the increasing population and number of tourists. It is important to evaluate and investigate the coastal areas where more artificial areas are expected to be needed within the scope of the coastal area management plans to be prepared at the national scale.