The SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic in Germany may represent the sum of a large number of local but independent epidemics each initiated by individuals aged 10–19 years, middle‐aged males, or elderly individuals

Abstract

Many epidemiological aspects of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemics, particularly those affecting children, are still sparsely elucidated. Data on the first pandemic phase during the year 2020 indicated that children might serve as a virus reservoir. We now analyzed data on more than 530 000 SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and 12 503 anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests performed in the west of Germany until Week 4 of 2021. We show that children of at least 10 years of age may play a prominent role in the pandemic showing highest PCR-positive rates in the first (Weeks 28-35), second (Weeks 42-48), and third wave (Week 50 of 2020-Week 2 2021) of the second pandemic phase, although the waves were not mainly initiated by children. The waves' kinetics differed even in nearby cities. Low PCR-positive rates were confined to areas of lower population density. PCR-positive rates were higher among middle-aged males compared with women and among very old females compared with males. From Week 25, seroprevalence rates slowly increased to 50%, indicating ongoing virus activity. In conclusion, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemics is characterized by many local but interacting epidemics, initiated and driven by different social groups. Children may not be the main initiators of virus spreading but older children may significantly affect the course of the pandemic. High population density is associated with higher SARS-CoV-2 incidence.