Assessing the Impacts of Climate change on Crop Yields in different Agro-Climatic Zones of India

Abstract

Thestudy attempts to estimateand predict climate impact on crop yieldsusing future temperature projections under two climate emissions scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for threedifferent time periods (2030s, 2050s and 2080s) across Agro-climatic zones (ACZ) of India.During the period 1966-2011, a significant rise was observed in both the annual mean maximum and minimum temperature across ACZs. Rainfall recorded an annual decline in Himalayan Regions and Gangetic Plains and a rise in Coastal Regions, Plateau & Hills and Western Dry Region.Our results showedhigh heterogeneity in climate impact onkharif and rabi crop yields (with both negative and positive estimates) across ACZs.It was found that rainfall had a positive effect on most of crop yields, but was not sufficient enough to counterbalance the impact of temperature.Changes in crop yield were more pronounced forhigheremission scenario of RCP 8.5. Thus, it was evident that the relative impacts of climate change and the associated vulnerability varyby ACZs, hence comprehensive crop and region-specific adaptation measures should be emphasized that helps in enhancing resilience of agricultural system in short to medium term.